10 day weather forecast for the UK

Ten days for every major city. This time the model runs agree well until Friday 6 Nov; from Saturday 7 Nov most cities drop to low confidence.

Ten days, city by city

Under each day: the share of the 51 ECMWF runs with 1 mm of rain or more.

Ten days by city
Place	Today4 Nov	Thu5 Nov	Fri6 Nov	Sat7 Nov	Sun8 Nov	Mon9 Nov	Tue10 Nov	Wed11 Nov	Thu12 Nov	Fri13 Nov
London	11°9°0% wet	11°9°10% wet	10°9°29% wet	11°7°35% wet	10°7°10% wet	10°6°14% wet	11°9°71% wet	11°10°84% wet	10°8°57% wet	8°3°35% wet
Manchester	12°9°0% wet	12°8°0% wet	10°7°10% wet	9°7°37% wet	8°6°43% wet	8°4°4% wet	8°6°55% wet	10°8°61% wet	9°2°27% wet	7°2°39% wet
Birmingham	11°8°2% wet	10°6°0% wet	9°7°22% wet	9°5°35% wet	9°5°20% wet	8°4°8% wet	8°7°65% wet	10°7°75% wet	9°3°43% wet	6°2°22% wet
Liverpool	12°8°0% wet	12°7°0% wet	10°8°14% wet	9°6°45% wet	7°4°43% wet	6°3°8% wet	8°4°55% wet	11°7°61% wet	9°4°35% wet	9°5°47% wet
Leeds	12°9°63% wet	11°9°2% wet	10°8°0% wet	9°7°45% wet	9°4°33% wet	5°2°2% wet	7°3°47% wet	10°6°67% wet	8°3°35% wet	5°2°27% wet
Newcastle	11°6°41% wet	11°9°27% wet	11°9°4% wet	10°8°53% wet	9°6°65% wet	8°4°12% wet	8°3°45% wet	10°7°73% wet	8°3°51% wet	6°1°35% wet
Bristol	11°8°0% wet	11°8°8% wet	9°7°29% wet	10°7°12% wet	11°3°10% wet	10°4°16% wet	10°9°78% wet	11°8°86% wet	10°4°41% wet	8°2°31% wet
Cardiff	11°9°0% wet	11°8°49% wet	10°8°31% wet	10°6°22% wet	11°4°8% wet	10°5°20% wet	9°9°76% wet	11°9°84% wet	10°4°43% wet	9°3°29% wet
Edinburgh	10°4°0% wet	10°5°0% wet	10°8°2% wet	10°7°49% wet	9°5°39% wet	7°3°2% wet	6°2°43% wet	9°6°65% wet	7°2°37% wet	6°2°22% wet
Glasgow	10°5°0% wet	10°5°0% wet	10°8°2% wet	9°7°49% wet	9°3°16% wet	7°4°2% wet	6°1°39% wet	8°3°49% wet	7°-1°25% wet	6°1°24% wet
Belfast	11°8°0% wet	12°9°53% wet	10°9°22% wet	10°5°47% wet	8°4°14% wet	10°2°10% wet	10°5°49% wet	9°7°51% wet	8°5°20% wet	6°3°22% wet

Source: Open-Meteo and ECMWF. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18

Where the forecast stops being dependable

For each day, how many of our eleven cities sit at each confidence level.

Wed9/1/1
Thu8/1/2
Fri6/5/0
Sat1/4/6
Sun5/4/2
Mon8/3/0
Tue0/2/9
Wed0/6/5
Thu0/5/6
Fri0/7/4

Dark: high confidence. Mid: medium. Light: low. Numbers are cities at high, medium and low.

How we work out confidence

10 day forecast: questions

Can you trust a 10 day forecast?

Days one to five, mostly. Days six to ten are where forecasts on most sites quietly lose accuracy while looking just as precise. Here the 'wet' figure under each day is the share of 51 model runs that give at least 1 mm of rain: near 0% or 100% means the runs agree; around 50% means nobody knows yet.

Why do the numbers for day 10 keep changing?

Each new model run starts from fresh observations, and small differences grow over ten days. A day-10 high that moves by three degrees between updates is normal. The broad pattern usually holds better than the detail.