Liverpool weather forecast

A city on the Mersey estuary, where the Irish Sea sets the tone: mild winters, cool summers and a lot of wind.

Liverpool now, 13:15

12°Light drizzle

Today 8° to 12°9 mph

Feels like: 9°C
Wind: 9 mph ENE
Gusts: 17 mph
Rain chance, next 12 h: 2%
Humidity: 68%
Dew point: 6°C
Cloud cover: 85%
Pressure: 1033 hPa
Visibility: Over 10 km
UV index: 0
Sunrise: 07:16
Sunset: 16:34

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model forecast for the city centre

Next 12 hours
Rain at times, 0.3 mm
9 to 12°C, gusts up to 19 mph.
High confidence
Hour by hour
Next 5 days
Dry all week
Highs 6 to 12°C, no rain worth noting.
High confidence
Day by day
Days 6 to 15
Mostly unsettled
Most runs put highs between 6 and 14°C. Rain is favoured on 6 of 9 days.
Low confidence
See the model runs
Weeks 3 to 6
A little warmer than normal
A little wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.
Leaning only
Week by week
December and January
A little milder than normal
From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.
Leaning only
Months ahead

Liverpool hour by hour

The next three days. Temperature, chance of rain and wind for each hour.

Now12°Rain chance 1%9mph
14:0011°Rain chance 2%9mph
15:0012°Rain chance 2%8mph
16:0012°Rain chance 2%10mph
17:0011°Rain chance 1%6mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
19:0010°Rain chance 0%8mph
20:0010°Rain chance 0%6mph
21:0010°Rain chance 0%5mph
22:0010°Rain chance 0%6mph
23:009°Rain chance 0%6mph
Thu 59°Rain chance 0%7mph
01:008°Rain chance 0%7mph
02:008°Rain chance 0%6mph
03:008°Rain chance 0%6mph
04:007°Rain chance 0%6mph
05:007°Rain chance 0%5mph
06:007°Rain chance 0%3mph
07:007°Rain chance 0%4mph
08:008°Rain chance 0%3mph
09:008°Rain chance 0%2mph
10:009°Rain chance 0%3mph
11:0010°Rain chance 0%3mph
12:0011°Rain chance 0%7mph
13:0011°Rain chance 0%10mph
14:0011°Rain chance 0%9mph
15:0011°Rain chance 0%7mph
16:0011°Rain chance 0%4mph
17:0011°Rain chance 0%6mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%9mph
19:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
20:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
21:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
22:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
23:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
Fri 69°Rain chance 0%3mph
01:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
02:008°Rain chance 0%4mph
03:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
04:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
05:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
06:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
07:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
08:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
09:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
10:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
11:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
12:009°Rain chance 0%4mph

From 7°C (Thu 06:00) to 12°C (Wed 13:00) over the next three days. Line is temperature, bars are rain per hour.

Liverpool 14 day forecast

Mostly dry, with rain on Tuesday. Liverpool peaks at 12°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 3°C on Monday. Expect around 3mm of rain in total, falling across 1 day. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 27mph.

Today4 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.3 mm in about 2 h. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°12°
Low 8°C, high 12°C, 80% of runs between 12 and 13°C, normal high 12°C.
10mphgusts 19High confidence
Tomorrow5 Nov
Overcast. Dry. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°12°
Low 7°C, high 12°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
10mphgusts 20High confidence
Friday6 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 7 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°10°
Low 8°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
5mphgusts 10High confidence
Saturday7 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
6°9°
Low 6°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 10°C, normal high 11°C.
4mphgusts 9Low confidence
Sunday8 Nov
Fog. Dry. 22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°7°
Low 4°C, high 7°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 10°C, normal high 11°C.
5mphgusts 9Low confidence
Monday9 Nov
Fog. Dry. 4 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°6°
Low 3°C, high 6°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 10°C, normal high 11°C.
7mphgusts 13High confidence
Tuesday10 Nov
Drizzle. 3.0 mm in about 6 h. 28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°8°
Low 4°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 12°C, normal high 11°C.
7mphgusts 13Low confidence
Wednesday11 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 31 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°11°
Low 7°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 13°C, normal high 11°C.
10mphgusts 27Medium confidence
Thursday12 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°9°
Low 4°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 12°C, normal high 10°C.
9mphgusts 20Medium confidence
Friday13 Nov
Snow showers. 2.9 mm in about 23 h. 24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°9°
Low 5°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 11°C, normal high 10°C.
17mphgusts 39Low confidence
Saturday14 Nov
Light drizzle. Little or no rain. 23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
6°7°
Low 6°C, high 7°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 12°C, normal high 10°C.
17mphgusts 37Low confidence
Sunday15 Nov
Light drizzle. 1.8 mm in about 12 h. 28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°9°
Low 5°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 12°C, normal high 10°C.
14mphgusts 31Low confidence
Monday16 Nov
Light drizzle. 1.2 mm in about 12 h. 33 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°10°
Low 8°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 27Low confidence
Tuesday17 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 38 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°10°
Low 3°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
9mphgusts 19Medium confidence

Low to highWhere 80% of runs put the highNormal high, 1991 to 2020

Source: Open-Meteo, ECMWF and Copernicus ERA5. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Rain agreement and confidence from the 51-run ECMWF ensemble; normals 1991 to 2020

How far can you trust it?

Each faint line is one run of the ECMWF ensemble: the same model started 51 times with slightly different starting conditions. Where the lines bunch, the forecast is solid. Where they fan out, the weather is genuinely undecided. For Liverpool, the runs part company from Saturday.

Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

Daytime high by day from the ensemble, with the range of runs, rain agreement and confidence
Day	Most likely high	Range (80% of runs)	Normal	Rain	Confidence
Today	12°C	12 to 13°C	12°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Thu 5 Nov	11°C	10 to 11°C	11°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Fri 6 Nov	10°C	9 to 11°C	11°C	7 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Sat 7 Nov	10°C	9 to 10°C	11°C	23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sun 8 Nov	10°C	9 to 10°C	11°C	22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Mon 9 Nov	9°C	8 to 10°C	11°C	4 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Tue 10 Nov	10°C	8 to 12°C	11°C	28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 11 Nov	10°C	9 to 13°C	11°C	31 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Thu 12 Nov	9°C	7 to 12°C	10°C	18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Fri 13 Nov	9°C	7 to 11°C	10°C	24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sat 14 Nov	9°C	7 to 12°C	10°C	23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sun 15 Nov	9°C	7 to 12°C	10°C	28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Mon 16 Nov	10°C	6 to 13°C	10°C	33 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Tue 17 Nov	10°C	7 to 13°C	10°C	38 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Wed 18 Nov	10°C	6 to 14°C	10°C	32 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, updated every 6 hours

Liverpool long range forecast: the next six weeks

Beyond two weeks no model can tell you about a single day, but it can tell you whether a whole week leans warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. These figures compare the ECMWF extended-range forecast with the same model's climate for the time of year.

This week
2 Nov to 8 Nov
Close to normal
−0.4°C
Drier than normal
−22 mm
Temperatures close to normal, drier than normal.
Next week
9 Nov to 15 Nov
Close to normal
−0.3°C
A little drier than normal
−3 mm
Temperatures close to normal, a little drier than normal.
Week 3
16 Nov to 22 Nov
Warmer than normal
+1.5°C
A little wetter than normal
+6 mm
Warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 4
23 Nov to 29 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+0.9°C
A little wetter than normal
+4 mm
A little warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 5
30 Nov to 6 Dec
A little warmer than normal
+0.5°C
Close to normal rainfall
−0 mm
A little warmer than normal, rainfall close to normal.
Week 6
7 Dec to 13 Dec
A little milder than normal
+0.5°C
Close to normal rainfall
+1 mm
A little milder than normal, rainfall close to normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF EC46 extended range, 51 runs, updated daily

Months ahead

The seasonal model nudges the odds for whole months. Over the UK its skill is modest, so treat a leaning as a slight tilt and anything within half a degree as no signal at all.

Monthly temperature and rainfall leaning against normal, ECMWF SEAS5
Month	Temperature	Against normal	Rainfall	Against normal
November 2026	Close to normal	+0.4°C	Close to normal rainfall	+6 mm
December 2026	A little milder than normal	+1.0°C	A little wetter than normal	+12 mm
January 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.7°C	Close to normal rainfall	+7 mm
February 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.6°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
March 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.6°C	Close to normal rainfall	+6 mm
April 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.9°C	A little wetter than normal	+8 mm

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, updated on the 5th of each month

How accurate are long range forecasts?

Air quality and pollen in Liverpool

European AQI now: 23 (Fair)
Fine particles (PM2.5): 6 µg/m³
UV index now: 1
Highest pollen: Very low

Source: Copernicus CAMS and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model estimates from CAMS

Liverpool climate: what is normal?

Liverpool faces the Irish Sea across Liverpool Bay, with the Wirral to the south-west and flat ground to the north. The sea keeps winters mild and frosts short, and it takes the edge off summer heat, so the city's range between seasons is narrower than inland.

Being exposed to the west, Liverpool takes the full force of Atlantic gales. Showers that form over the sea run inland on westerly and north-westerly winds, often arriving here before Manchester.

What to watch for in Liverpool

Gusts along the waterfront. The Pier Head, the docks and the Wirral coast feel noticeably windier than the inland suburbs. Plan around the gust figure.
Sea breeze in summer. On sunny days a breeze off the bay can hold the waterfront several degrees cooler than places a few miles inland.
Snow rarely lasts. The relatively warm sea means snow seldom settles for long near the coast, even when Manchester and the hills get a covering.

Average highAverage lowRain, mm a month

Across 1991 to 2020, Liverpool averaged 1073 mm of rain a year over about 181 wet days, and about 2880 hours of sunshine. The wettest month was December, the driest April. The warmest day in the record for this grid point reached 29.8°C (25 Jul 2019).

Liverpool: monthly averages 1991 to 2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis
Month	High	Low	Rain	Days with 1 mm+	Sunshine	Frost nights
January	7.0°C	3.0°C	89 mm	16	122 h	5
February	7.4°C	2.8°C	75 mm	14	159 h	6
March	9.2°C	3.7°C	73 mm	14	239 h	3
April	11.6°C	5.3°C	67 mm	13	294 h	1
May	14.6°C	8.2°C	69 mm	13	351 h	0
June	17.0°C	11.1°C	83 mm	14	347 h	0
July	18.7°C	13.1°C	87 mm	16	354 h	0
August	18.5°C	13.2°C	95 mm	16	320 h	0
September	16.6°C	11.3°C	91 mm	14	255 h	0
October	13.3°C	8.7°C	114 mm	16	195 h	0
November	9.7°C	5.8°C	111 mm	18	132 h	1
December	7.4°C	3.5°C	119 mm	17	112 h	5

Source: Copernicus ERA5 and Open-Meteo. ERA5 reanalysis grid values for the city, 1991 to 2020; these are not Met Office station averages

Liverpool weather questions

Will it rain in Liverpool this week?

How reliable is the 14 day forecast for Liverpool?

The 51 ECMWF runs agree well for the first few days, then spread out. From Saturday 7 Nov confidence is low: by the last day, the middle 80% of runs put the high between 6 and 14°C.

What is the weather usually like in Liverpool in November?

From 1991 to 2020, November in Liverpool averaged a high of 9.7°C and a low of 5.8°C, with about 111 mm of rain over 18 wet days (ERA5 reanalysis).

What makes Liverpool's weather different?