Belfast weather forecast

At the head of Belfast Lough, between the Antrim hills and Lough Neagh, where the Irish Sea keeps things mild.

Belfast now, 13:15

11°Partly cloudy

Today 8° to 11°6 mph

Feels like: 9°C
Wind: 6 mph ENE
Gusts: 14 mph
Rain chance, next 12 h: 0%
Humidity: 70%
Dew point: 6°C
Cloud cover: 62%
Pressure: 1035 hPa
Visibility: Over 10 km
UV index: 0
Sunrise: 07:31
Sunset: 16:41

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model forecast for the city centre

Next 12 hours
Partly cloudy, staying dry
10 to 11°C, gusts up to 17 mph.
High confidence
Hour by hour
Next 5 days
Mostly dry, with rain on Friday
Highs 8 to 12°C, about 3 mm of rain in total.
High confidence
Day by day
Days 6 to 15
A mix of wet and dry days
Most runs put highs between 6 and 14°C. Rain is favoured on 3 of 9 days.
Low confidence
See the model runs
Weeks 3 to 6
A little warmer than normal
A little wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.
Leaning only
Week by week
December and January
A little milder than normal
From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.
Leaning only
Months ahead

Belfast hour by hour

The next three days. Temperature, chance of rain and wind for each hour.

Now11°Rain chance 0%6mph
14:0011°Rain chance 0%6mph
15:0011°Rain chance 0%6mph
16:0011°Rain chance 0%7mph
17:0011°Rain chance 0%6mph
18:0011°Rain chance 0%7mph
19:0011°Rain chance 0%7mph
20:0010°Rain chance 0%8mph
21:0011°Rain chance 0%8mph
22:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
23:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
Thu 510°Rain chance 0%7mph
01:0010°Rain chance 1%7mph
02:0010°Rain chance 2%7mph
03:0010°Rain chance 2%7mph
04:009°Rain chance 2%7mph
05:009°Rain chance 1%6mph
06:009°Rain chance 0%6mph
07:009°Rain chance 0%7mph
08:009°Rain chance 0%7mph
09:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
10:0010°Rain chance 0%9mph
11:0011°Rain chance 0%11mph
12:0011°Rain chance 2%10mph
13:0011°Rain chance 10%9mph
14:0012°Rain chance 20%9mph
15:0012°Rain chance 29%9mph
16:0012°Rain chance 33%9mph
17:0011°Rain chance 36%8mph
18:0011°Rain chance 37%8mph
19:0011°Rain chance 38%9mph
20:0011°Rain chance 38%8mph
21:0010°Rain chance 35%8mph
22:0010°Rain chance 26%7mph
23:0010°Rain chance 15%8mph
Fri 610°Rain chance 6%6mph
01:0010°Rain chance 2%3mph
02:0010°Rain chance 1%2mph
03:0010°Rain chance 0%3mph
04:0010°Rain chance 0%4mph
05:009°Rain chance 0%6mph
06:009°Rain chance 0%3mph
07:0010°Rain chance 0%0mph
08:009°Rain chance 0%3mph
09:0010°Rain chance 0%5mph
10:0010°Rain chance 2%4mph
11:0010°Rain chance 5%6mph
12:0010°Rain chance 8%5mph

From 5°C (Sat 06:00) to 12°C (Thu 14:00) over the next three days. Line is temperature, bars are rain per hour.

Belfast 14 day forecast

Mostly dry, with rain on Friday. Belfast peaks at 12°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 2°C on Monday. Expect around 3mm of rain in total, falling across 1 day. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 28mph.

Today4 Nov
Overcast. Dry. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°11°
Low 8°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 11 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
8mphgusts 17High confidence
Tomorrow5 Nov
Drizzle. 0.6 mm in about 2 h. 27 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°12°
Low 9°C, high 12°C, 80% of runs between 11 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
11mphgusts 23Low confidence
Friday6 Nov
Drizzle. 2.3 mm in about 7 h. 11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°10°
Low 9°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
6mphgusts 13Medium confidence
Saturday7 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°10°
Low 5°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 10°C, normal high 11°C.
4mphgusts 7Low confidence
Sunday8 Nov
Fog. Dry. 7 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°8°
Low 4°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 10°C, normal high 11°C.
4mphgusts 7Medium confidence
Monday9 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°10°
Low 2°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 10°C, normal high 11°C.
8mphgusts 14High confidence
Tuesday10 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 25 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°10°
Low 5°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
10mphgusts 19Low confidence
Wednesday11 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 26 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°9°
Low 7°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 12°C, normal high 11°C.
13mphgusts 28Low confidence
Thursday12 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 10 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°8°
Low 5°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 11°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 23Medium confidence
Friday13 Nov
Light drizzle. 1.1 mm in about 11 h. 11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°6°
Low 3°C, high 6°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 12°C, normal high 10°C.
14mphgusts 31Medium confidence
Saturday14 Nov
Light drizzle. Little or no rain. 18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°6°
Low 3°C, high 6°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 12°C, normal high 10°C.
12mphgusts 27Low confidence
Sunday15 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 21 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°8°
Low 3°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 24Low confidence
Monday16 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°9°
Low 5°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 24Low confidence
Tuesday17 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 26 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°8°
Low 4°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.
9mphgusts 20Low confidence

Low to highWhere 80% of runs put the highNormal high, 1991 to 2020

Source: Open-Meteo, ECMWF and Copernicus ERA5. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Rain agreement and confidence from the 51-run ECMWF ensemble; normals 1991 to 2020

How far can you trust it?

Each faint line is one run of the ECMWF ensemble: the same model started 51 times with slightly different starting conditions. Where the lines bunch, the forecast is solid. Where they fan out, the weather is genuinely undecided. For Belfast, the runs part company from Thursday.

Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

Daytime high by day from the ensemble, with the range of runs, rain agreement and confidence
Day	Most likely high	Range (80% of runs)	Normal	Rain	Confidence
Today	11°C	11 to 11°C	11°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Thu 5 Nov	11°C	11 to 11°C	11°C	27 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Fri 6 Nov	10°C	10 to 11°C	11°C	11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 7 Nov	10°C	9 to 10°C	11°C	24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sun 8 Nov	10°C	7 to 10°C	11°C	7 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Mon 9 Nov	10°C	9 to 10°C	11°C	5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Tue 10 Nov	10°C	9 to 11°C	11°C	25 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 11 Nov	10°C	8 to 12°C	11°C	26 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Thu 12 Nov	8°C	6 to 11°C	10°C	10 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Fri 13 Nov	9°C	6 to 12°C	10°C	11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 14 Nov	9°C	6 to 12°C	10°C	18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sun 15 Nov	10°C	7 to 13°C	10°C	21 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Mon 16 Nov	11°C	6 to 13°C	10°C	28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Tue 17 Nov	10°C	7 to 14°C	10°C	26 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 18 Nov	10°C	7 to 14°C	10°C	23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, updated every 6 hours

Belfast long range forecast: the next six weeks

Beyond two weeks no model can tell you about a single day, but it can tell you whether a whole week leans warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. These figures compare the ECMWF extended-range forecast with the same model's climate for the time of year.

This week
2 Nov to 8 Nov
Close to normal
−0.4°C
Drier than normal
−18 mm
Temperatures close to normal, drier than normal.
Next week
9 Nov to 15 Nov
Close to normal
−0.1°C
A little drier than normal
−5 mm
Temperatures close to normal, a little drier than normal.
Week 3
16 Nov to 22 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+1.1°C
A little wetter than normal
+5 mm
A little warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 4
23 Nov to 29 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+0.6°C
A little wetter than normal
+4 mm
A little warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 5
30 Nov to 6 Dec
Close to normal
+0.3°C
A little wetter than normal
+2 mm
Temperatures close to normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 6
7 Dec to 13 Dec
Close to normal
+0.3°C
A little wetter than normal
+4 mm
Temperatures close to normal, a little wetter than normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF EC46 extended range, 51 runs, updated daily

Months ahead

The seasonal model nudges the odds for whole months. Over the UK its skill is modest, so treat a leaning as a slight tilt and anything within half a degree as no signal at all.

Monthly temperature and rainfall leaning against normal, ECMWF SEAS5
Month	Temperature	Against normal	Rainfall	Against normal
November 2026	Close to normal	+0.2°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
December 2026	A little milder than normal	+0.6°C	A little wetter than normal	+9 mm
January 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.6°C	Close to normal rainfall	+8 mm
February 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.5°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
March 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.5°C	A little wetter than normal	+7 mm
April 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.8°C	A little wetter than normal	+7 mm

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, updated on the 5th of each month

How accurate are long range forecasts?

Air quality and pollen in Belfast

European AQI now: 21 (Fair)
Fine particles (PM2.5): 3 µg/m³
UV index now: 1
Highest pollen: Very low

Source: Copernicus CAMS and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model estimates from CAMS

Belfast climate: what is normal?

Belfast sits at the head of Belfast Lough with the Belfast Hills (Divis and Black Mountain, Cave Hill) rising steeply to the west. The sea keeps winters mild and summers cool, and the narrow range between seasons is typical of Northern Ireland.

Atlantic fronts reach Northern Ireland early, but the hills to the west take a share of the rain, so Belfast is drier than the west of the province around Fermanagh and Derry.

What to watch for in Belfast

Hills and the lough. Low cloud sits on the Belfast Hills on many westerly days, and the lough channels wind towards the city and the harbour.
Showers in a north-westerly. Cold north-westerlies bring bands of showers across the province, with sunshine between them.
Snow on the hills, rain in the city. In a marginal cold spell, the hills turn white while the city near sea level stays wet.

Average highAverage lowRain, mm a month

Across 1991 to 2020, Belfast averaged 914 mm of rain a year over about 165 wet days, and about 2645 hours of sunshine. The wettest month was October, the driest February. The warmest day in the record for this grid point reached 26.4°C (27 Jun 2018).

Belfast: monthly averages 1991 to 2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis
Month	High	Low	Rain	Days with 1 mm+	Sunshine	Frost nights
January	7.5°C	3.7°C	78 mm	14	117 h	2
February	7.7°C	3.5°C	64 mm	13	150 h	2
March	9.0°C	4.1°C	64 mm	14	215 h	1
April	10.9°C	5.6°C	65 mm	13	276 h	0
May	13.6°C	7.9°C	71 mm	14	334 h	0
June	16.0°C	10.6°C	77 mm	13	319 h	0
July	17.5°C	12.3°C	84 mm	15	304 h	0
August	17.3°C	12.4°C	82 mm	14	282 h	0
September	15.7°C	11.0°C	71 mm	13	230 h	0
October	12.7°C	8.7°C	88 mm	14	181 h	0
November	9.8°C	6.1°C	88 mm	14	129 h	0
December	7.9°C	4.2°C	82 mm	13	108 h	2

Source: Copernicus ERA5 and Open-Meteo. ERA5 reanalysis grid values for the city, 1991 to 2020; these are not Met Office station averages

Belfast weather questions

Will it rain in Belfast this week?

How reliable is the 14 day forecast for Belfast?

The 51 ECMWF runs agree well for the first few days, then spread out. From Thursday 5 Nov confidence is low: by the last day, the middle 80% of runs put the high between 7 and 14°C.

What is the weather usually like in Belfast in November?

From 1991 to 2020, November in Belfast averaged a high of 9.8°C and a low of 6.1°C, with about 88 mm of rain over 14 wet days (ERA5 reanalysis).

What makes Belfast's weather different?