Bristol weather forecast

Between the Severn estuary and the Mendips, mild and sheltered, with Atlantic rain usually not far away.

Bristol now, 13:15

11°Overcast

Today 8° to 11°11 mph

Feels like: 6°C
Wind: 11 mph ENE
Gusts: 24 mph
Rain chance, next 12 h: 2%
Humidity: 53%
Dew point: 2°C
Cloud cover: 99%
Pressure: 1029 hPa
Visibility: Over 10 km
UV index: 0
Sunrise: 07:08
Sunset: 16:38

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model forecast for the city centre

Next 12 hours
Overcast, staying dry
10 to 11°C, gusts up to 26 mph.
High confidence
Hour by hour
Next 5 days
Mostly dry, with rain on Friday
Highs 9 to 11°C, about 3 mm of rain in total.
High confidence
Day by day
Days 6 to 15
Leaning drier
Most runs put highs between 7 and 15°C. Rain is favoured on 2 of 9 days.
Low confidence
See the model runs
Weeks 3 to 6
A little warmer than normal
Wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.
Leaning only
Week by week
December and January
A little milder than normal
From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.
Leaning only
Months ahead

Bristol hour by hour

The next three days. Temperature, chance of rain and wind for each hour.

Now11°Rain chance 2%11mph
14:0011°Rain chance 1%11mph
15:0011°Rain chance 0%12mph
16:0011°Rain chance 0%11mph
17:0010°Rain chance 0%9mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%10mph
19:0010°Rain chance 0%11mph
20:0010°Rain chance 0%10mph
21:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
22:0010°Rain chance 1%9mph
23:0010°Rain chance 1%9mph
Thu 510°Rain chance 2%8mph
01:009°Rain chance 2%9mph
02:009°Rain chance 2%9mph
03:009°Rain chance 2%8mph
04:009°Rain chance 3%8mph
05:009°Rain chance 5%7mph
06:008°Rain chance 6%7mph
07:008°Rain chance 5%9mph
08:008°Rain chance 3%8mph
09:009°Rain chance 2%7mph
10:009°Rain chance 1%9mph
11:0010°Rain chance 0%9mph
12:0010°Rain chance 0%9mph
13:0011°Rain chance 1%8mph
14:0011°Rain chance 1%9mph
15:0011°Rain chance 2%8mph
16:0011°Rain chance 1%8mph
17:0011°Rain chance 0%7mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
19:0010°Rain chance 2%7mph
20:0010°Rain chance 6%8mph
21:0010°Rain chance 10%5mph
22:0010°Rain chance 16%7mph
23:009°Rain chance 22%8mph
Fri 69°Rain chance 25%5mph
01:008°Rain chance 22%6mph
02:008°Rain chance 15%6mph
03:008°Rain chance 10%5mph
04:008°Rain chance 8%5mph
05:008°Rain chance 8%6mph
06:008°Rain chance 8%5mph
07:008°Rain chance 9%3mph
08:008°Rain chance 10%5mph
09:008°Rain chance 12%5mph
10:008°Rain chance 14%6mph
11:009°Rain chance 16%6mph
12:009°Rain chance 16%6mph

From 7°C (Sat 01:00) to 11°C (Wed 15:00) over the next three days. Line is temperature, bars are rain per hour.

Bristol 14 day forecast

Dry start, turning wet from Friday. Bristol peaks at 11°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 3°C on Sunday. Expect around 30mm of rain in total, falling across 3 days. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 26mph.

Today4 Nov
Overcast. Dry. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°11°
Low 8°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 12°C.
13mphgusts 28High confidence
Tomorrow5 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.5 mm in about 4 h. 4 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°11°
Low 8°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
9mphgusts 19High confidence
Friday6 Nov
Drizzle. 1.8 mm in about 6 h. 15 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°9°
Low 7°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
6mphgusts 13Medium confidence
Saturday7 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 6 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°10°
Low 7°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
5mphgusts 9High confidence
Sunday8 Nov
Mostly clear. Dry. 5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°11°
Low 3°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
6mphgusts 11High confidence
Monday9 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.5 mm in about 5 h. 8 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°10°
Low 4°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
11mphgusts 20Medium confidence
Tuesday10 Nov
Rain. 24.2 mm in about 21 h. 40 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°10°
Low 9°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 15°C, normal high 11°C.
13mphgusts 24Low confidence
Wednesday11 Nov
Light drizzle. 3.0 mm in about 24 h. 44 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°11°
Low 8°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 15°C, normal high 11°C.
13mphgusts 26Low confidence
Thursday12 Nov
Light drizzle. 2.5 mm in about 13 h. 21 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°10°
Low 4°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
12mphgusts 25Low confidence
Friday13 Nov
Partly cloudy. Dry. 16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°8°
Low 2°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
11mphgusts 27Low confidence
Saturday14 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 13 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°8°
Low 4°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
11mphgusts 27Low confidence
Sunday15 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°8°
Low 3°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
8mphgusts 22Low confidence
Monday16 Nov
Partly cloudy. Dry. 23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°9°
Low 4°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
7mphgusts 17Low confidence
Tuesday17 Nov
Fog. Dry. 23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°8°
Low 2°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.
5mphgusts 13Low confidence

Low to highWhere 80% of runs put the highNormal high, 1991 to 2020

Source: Open-Meteo, ECMWF and Copernicus ERA5. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Rain agreement and confidence from the 51-run ECMWF ensemble; normals 1991 to 2020

How far can you trust it?

Each faint line is one run of the ECMWF ensemble: the same model started 51 times with slightly different starting conditions. Where the lines bunch, the forecast is solid. Where they fan out, the weather is genuinely undecided. For Bristol, the runs part company from Tuesday.

Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

Daytime high by day from the ensemble, with the range of runs, rain agreement and confidence
Day	Most likely high	Range (80% of runs)	Normal	Rain	Confidence
Today	10°C	10 to 11°C	12°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Thu 5 Nov	10°C	10 to 11°C	11°C	4 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Fri 6 Nov	11°C	9 to 11°C	11°C	15 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 7 Nov	10°C	10 to 11°C	11°C	6 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Sun 8 Nov	10°C	9 to 11°C	11°C	5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Mon 9 Nov	10°C	8 to 11°C	11°C	8 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Tue 10 Nov	11°C	8 to 15°C	11°C	40 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 11 Nov	12°C	8 to 15°C	11°C	44 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Thu 12 Nov	10°C	7 to 13°C	10°C	21 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Fri 13 Nov	9°C	7 to 13°C	10°C	16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sat 14 Nov	9°C	7 to 13°C	10°C	13 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sun 15 Nov	10°C	7 to 13°C	10°C	16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Mon 16 Nov	11°C	7 to 13°C	10°C	23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Tue 17 Nov	12°C	7 to 14°C	10°C	23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 18 Nov	11°C	7 to 14°C	10°C	20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, updated every 6 hours

Bristol long range forecast: the next six weeks

Beyond two weeks no model can tell you about a single day, but it can tell you whether a whole week leans warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. These figures compare the ECMWF extended-range forecast with the same model's climate for the time of year.

This week
2 Nov to 8 Nov
A little colder than normal
−1.1°C
Drier than normal
−19 mm
A little colder than normal, drier than normal.
Next week
9 Nov to 15 Nov
Close to normal
±0.0°C
A little wetter than normal
+2 mm
Temperatures close to normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 3
16 Nov to 22 Nov
Warmer than normal
+1.6°C
Wetter than normal
+5 mm
Warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 4
23 Nov to 29 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+1.2°C
Wetter than normal
+7 mm
A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 5
30 Nov to 6 Dec
A little warmer than normal
+0.7°C
Wetter than normal
+4 mm
A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 6
7 Dec to 13 Dec
A little milder than normal
+0.5°C
A little wetter than normal
+2 mm
A little milder than normal, a little wetter than normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF EC46 extended range, 51 runs, updated daily

Months ahead

The seasonal model nudges the odds for whole months. Over the UK its skill is modest, so treat a leaning as a slight tilt and anything within half a degree as no signal at all.

Monthly temperature and rainfall leaning against normal, ECMWF SEAS5
Month	Temperature	Against normal	Rainfall	Against normal
November 2026	A little warmer than normal	+0.5°C	A little wetter than normal	+14 mm
December 2026	A little milder than normal	+1.1°C	A little wetter than normal	+18 mm
January 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.8°C	A little wetter than normal	+7 mm
February 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.7°C	A little wetter than normal	+7 mm
March 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.7°C	A little wetter than normal	+6 mm
April 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.9°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, updated on the 5th of each month

How accurate are long range forecasts?

Air quality and pollen in Bristol

European AQI now: 20 (Good)
Fine particles (PM2.5): 5 µg/m³
UV index now: 1
Highest pollen: Very low

Source: Copernicus CAMS and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model estimates from CAMS

Bristol climate: what is normal?

Bristol sits on the Avon near where it meets the Severn estuary, with the Mendip Hills to the south and the Cotswolds to the north-east. It is one of the mildest cities in the UK, with winters softened by the Atlantic and the nearby estuary.

Fronts arrive from the south-west with little in the way, so rain is more frequent than in London, though the heaviest totals fall on the hills of Somerset, Devon and Wales around it.

What to watch for in Bristol

Estuary fog. Mist and fog form over the Severn estuary and the Avon gorge on calm autumn and winter mornings, and can linger around the docks and the M5.
South-westerly gales. The Bristol Channel funnels south-westerly winds, so gusts on the Severn bridges and the exposed downs are often stronger than in the city centre.
Snow is uncommon. When snow does fall, the Mendips and the higher northern and southern edges of the city see it settle first.

Average highAverage lowRain, mm a month

Across 1991 to 2020, Bristol averaged 791 mm of rain a year over about 138 wet days, and about 2718 hours of sunshine. The wettest month was October, the driest February. The warmest day in the record for this grid point reached 32.2°C (19 Jul 2006).

Bristol: monthly averages 1991 to 2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis
Month	High	Low	Rain	Days with 1 mm+	Sunshine	Frost nights
January	7.6°C	2.7°C	68 mm	13	120 h	8
February	8.1°C	2.3°C	56 mm	11	150 h	8
March	10.2°C	3.4°C	56 mm	11	212 h	4
April	12.9°C	5.1°C	62 mm	12	278 h	1
May	16.0°C	8.1°C	68 mm	12	320 h	0
June	18.6°C	11.0°C	64 mm	11	325 h	0
July	20.5°C	13.0°C	63 mm	11	336 h	0
August	20.1°C	13.0°C	70 mm	11	300 h	0
September	17.9°C	10.9°C	58 mm	10	239 h	0
October	14.2°C	8.4°C	76 mm	12	185 h	0
November	10.4°C	5.2°C	75 mm	13	134 h	2
December	7.9°C	3.1°C	75 mm	12	119 h	7

Source: Copernicus ERA5 and Open-Meteo. ERA5 reanalysis grid values for the city, 1991 to 2020; these are not Met Office station averages

Bristol weather questions

Will it rain in Bristol this week?

How reliable is the 14 day forecast for Bristol?

The 51 ECMWF runs agree well for the first few days, then spread out. From Tuesday 10 Nov confidence is low: by the last day, the middle 80% of runs put the high between 7 and 14°C.

What is the weather usually like in Bristol in November?

From 1991 to 2020, November in Bristol averaged a high of 10.4°C and a low of 5.2°C, with about 75 mm of rain over 13 wet days (ERA5 reanalysis).

What makes Bristol's weather different?