14 day weather forecast for the UK
Two weeks ahead, with every run of the ECMWF ensemble on the chart. By Wednesday 18 Nov, the runs for Manchester put the high anywhere from 5 to 13°C, which is the honest size of the uncertainty at that range.
Manchester: 51 runs, two weeks
Manchester: daytime highs from 51 runs of the ECMWF ensemble over 15 days. The most likely high runs from 12°C today to 9°C on Wed 18 Nov, and by then the middle 80% of runs spans 5°C to 13°C. Confidence drops to low from Sun 8 Nov.
| Day | Most likely high | Range (80% of runs) | Normal | Rain | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 12°C | 12 to 12°C | 11°C | None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more | High |
| Thu 5 Nov | 11°C | 10 to 11°C | 10°C | None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more | High |
| Fri 6 Nov | 11°C | 10 to 11°C | 10°C | 5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | High |
| Sat 7 Nov | 10°C | 9 to 10°C | 10°C | 19 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Medium |
| Sun 8 Nov | 9°C | 8 to 10°C | 10°C | 22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Low |
| Mon 9 Nov | 9°C | 8 to 10°C | 10°C | 2 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | High |
| Tue 10 Nov | 10°C | 8 to 12°C | 10°C | 28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Low |
| Wed 11 Nov | 10°C | 8 to 14°C | 10°C | 31 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Medium |
| Thu 12 Nov | 9°C | 5 to 12°C | 9°C | 14 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Low |
| Fri 13 Nov | 8°C | 6 to 11°C | 9°C | 20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Medium |
| Sat 14 Nov | 8°C | 5 to 11°C | 9°C | 20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Medium |
| Sun 15 Nov | 9°C | 5 to 12°C | 9°C | 24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Low |
| Mon 16 Nov | 10°C | 6 to 13°C | 9°C | 30 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Low |
| Tue 17 Nov | 10°C | 5 to 13°C | 9°C | 38 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Low |
| Wed 18 Nov | 9°C | 5 to 13°C | 9°C | 30 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more | Low |
Source: ECMWF, Open-Meteo and Copernicus ERA5. Updated
The same chart for every city: London, Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool, Leeds, Newcastle, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Belfast.
The second week, city by city
| Place | Wed11 Nov | Thu12 Nov | Fri13 Nov | Sat14 Nov | Sun15 Nov | Mon16 Nov | Tue17 Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| London | 11°10°84% wet | 10°8°57% wet | 8°3°35% wet | 7°2°29% wet | 7°1°24% wet | 9°3°39% wet | 9°2°43% wet |
| Manchester | 10°8°61% wet | 9°2°27% wet | 7°2°39% wet | 7°2°39% wet | 9°1°47% wet | 10°7°59% wet | 10°3°75% wet |
| Birmingham | 10°7°75% wet | 9°3°43% wet | 6°2°22% wet | 6°2°24% wet | 8°1°24% wet | 9°4°41% wet | 8°3°39% wet |
| Liverpool | 11°7°61% wet | 9°4°35% wet | 9°5°47% wet | 7°6°45% wet | 9°5°55% wet | 10°8°65% wet | 10°3°75% wet |
| Leeds | 10°6°67% wet | 8°3°35% wet | 5°2°27% wet | 5°1°27% wet | 8°1°31% wet | 10°6°43% wet | 10°4°55% wet |
| Newcastle | 10°7°73% wet | 8°3°51% wet | 6°1°35% wet | 5°1°27% wet | 8°1°33% wet | 10°6°43% wet | 11°4°59% wet |
| Bristol | 11°8°86% wet | 10°4°41% wet | 8°2°31% wet | 8°4°25% wet | 8°3°31% wet | 9°4°45% wet | 8°2°45% wet |
| Cardiff | 11°9°84% wet | 10°4°43% wet | 9°3°29% wet | 8°3°33% wet | 9°2°31% wet | 9°3°45% wet | 9°1°53% wet |
| Edinburgh | 9°6°65% wet | 7°2°37% wet | 6°2°22% wet | 5°1°27% wet | 8°1°39% wet | 10°7°61% wet | 11°6°55% wet |
| Glasgow | 8°3°49% wet | 7°-1°25% wet | 6°1°24% wet | 5°1°37% wet | 9°1°53% wet | 11°6°75% wet | 9°5°71% wet |
| Belfast | 9°7°51% wet | 8°5°20% wet | 6°3°22% wet | 6°3°35% wet | 8°3°41% wet | 9°5°55% wet | 8°4°51% wet |
14 day forecast: questions
Is a 14 day weather forecast accurate?
The first week, broadly yes. The second week gives a range of outcomes, too loose to plan a particular day around. That is why we show all 51 runs: if they bunch together on day 12, take it seriously; if they fan out, nobody knows yet.
Why does this page show Manchester?
One city keeps the chart readable, and Manchester sits in the middle of the country, often at the boundary between the wetter north-west and the drier south-east. Every city page has its own chart.
What is the dashed line?
The normal afternoon high for that date in 1991 to 2020, from the ERA5 reanalysis. It shows whether the second week is leaning warm or cold for the time of year.