Monthly weather forecast for the UK
The next six months from the ECMWF seasonal model, compared with normal for each month. Winter currently leans a little milder than normal on average across the UK. Read it as a tilt of the odds: over the UK, seasonal forecasts have modest skill.
Month by month, UK average
| Month | Temperature | Against normal | Rainfall | Against normal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | Close to normal | +0.4°C | A little wetter than normal | +9 mm |
| December 2026 | A little milder than normal | +1.0°C | A little wetter than normal | +14 mm |
| January 2027 | A little milder than normal | +0.7°C | Close to normal rainfall | +5 mm |
| February 2027 | A little milder than normal | +0.6°C | A little wetter than normal | +5 mm |
| March 2027 | A little warmer than normal | +0.6°C | A little wetter than normal | +5 mm |
| April 2027 | A little warmer than normal | +0.9°C | A little wetter than normal | +6 mm |
Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated . ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, new each month on the 5th
By nation
| Month | England | Scotland | Wales | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November | A little warmer than normal (+0.6°) | Close to normal (+0.3°) | A little warmer than normal (+0.5°) | Close to normal (+0.2°) |
| December | A little milder than normal (+1.3°) | A little milder than normal (+0.8°) | A little milder than normal (+1.1°) | A little milder than normal (+0.6°) |
| January | A little milder than normal (+0.9°) | A little milder than normal (+0.6°) | A little milder than normal (+0.8°) | A little milder than normal (+0.6°) |
| February | A little milder than normal (+0.7°) | Close to normal (+0.4°) | A little milder than normal (+0.7°) | A little milder than normal (+0.5°) |
| March | A little warmer than normal (+0.7°) | A little warmer than normal (+0.6°) | A little warmer than normal (+0.7°) | A little warmer than normal (+0.5°) |
| April | A little warmer than normal (+1.0°) | A little warmer than normal (+0.9°) | A little warmer than normal (+0.9°) | A little warmer than normal (+0.8°) |
Shown for each capital: London, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Belfast.
What normal looks like for these months
| City | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| London | 10°, 64 mm | 8°, 58 mm | 7°, 55 mm | 8°, 47 mm | 11°, 43 mm | 14°, 49 mm |
| Manchester | 9°, 90 mm | 7°, 100 mm | 7°, 89 mm | 7°, 78 mm | 9°, 75 mm | 12°, 67 mm |
| Birmingham | 9°, 65 mm | 7°, 63 mm | 7°, 55 mm | 7°, 47 mm | 10°, 50 mm | 12°, 56 mm |
| Cardiff | 10°, 105 mm | 8°, 110 mm | 8°, 96 mm | 8°, 78 mm | 10°, 70 mm | 12°, 71 mm |
| Edinburgh | 8°, 73 mm | 6°, 77 mm | 6°, 74 mm | 7°, 62 mm | 8°, 60 mm | 11°, 54 mm |
| Glasgow | 8°, 107 mm | 6°, 115 mm | 6°, 117 mm | 7°, 98 mm | 8°, 88 mm | 11°, 75 mm |
| Belfast | 10°, 88 mm | 8°, 82 mm | 8°, 78 mm | 8°, 64 mm | 9°, 64 mm | 11°, 65 mm |
Months ahead: questions
Can you forecast the weather months ahead?
Only as a tilt of the odds. Seasonal models have useful skill in the tropics; over the UK it is modest, because our weather depends on the path of the jet stream, which is hard to predict months out. A seasonal leaning is worth knowing. Do not book a holiday on it.
Will this winter be cold?
Averaged over the winter months in the current run, the model leans a little milder than normal (+0.8°C). That does not rule out cold spells: a mild winter on average can still bring a week of snow.
Why do several months lean warm?
Partly because the climate is warming: the model's reference period includes cooler past decades, so recent seasons often come out warmer than its normal. A leaning of under half a degree should be read as 'about normal'.