Long Range Weather

Rain forecast for the UK

The wettest place in the next 24 hours is Cardiff, with about 1 mm. Below: when the next rain arrives in each city, the next three days hour by hour, and the two-week picture from 51 model runs.

When does the rain arrive?

The first hour with at least 0.2 mm in the next three days, and the amount over 24 hours.
CityNext rainNext 24 hoursNext 3 days
LondonWed 23:000.4 mm0.9 mm
ManchesterNone in the next 3 days0.0 mm0.0 mm
BirminghamWed 15:000.4 mm0.4 mm
LiverpoolWed 14:000.3 mm0.3 mm
LeedsSat 10:000.2 mm1.1 mm
NewcastleThu 16:000.1 mm2.0 mm
BristolThu 23:000.3 mm2.3 mm
CardiffThu 03:001.3 mm3.0 mm
EdinburghFri 03:000.0 mm5.0 mm
GlasgowSat 07:000.0 mm3.0 mm
BelfastThu 23:000.0 mm2.9 mm

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated

Rain in the next 24 hours

London: 0.40.4Manchester: 0.00.0Birmingham: 0.40.4Newcastle: 0.10.1Bristol: 0.30.3Edinburgh: 0.00.0Belfast: 0.00.0Aberdeen: 0.60.6Inverness: 0.00.0Fort William: 0.00.0Stornoway: 0.00.0Lerwick: 0.10.1Dumfries: 0.00.0Hull: 0.20.2Norwich: 0.10.1Brighton: 0.00.0Exeter: 0.00.0Penzance: 0.70.7Aberystwyth: 0.00.0Bangor: 0.00.0Enniskillen: 0.00.0
Rain over the next 24 hours, mm
As a list
  • London0.4 mm
  • Manchester0 mm
  • Birmingham0.4 mm
  • Liverpool0.3 mm
  • Leeds0.2 mm
  • Newcastle0.1 mm
  • Bristol0.3 mm
  • Cardiff1.3 mm
  • Edinburgh0 mm
  • Glasgow0 mm
  • Belfast0 mm
  • Aberdeen0.6 mm
  • Inverness0 mm
  • Fort William0 mm
  • Stornoway0 mm
  • Lerwick0.1 mm
  • Dundee0 mm
  • Dumfries0 mm
  • Carlisle0.1 mm
  • Hull0.2 mm
  • Nottingham0.2 mm
  • Norwich0.1 mm
  • Cambridge0 mm
  • Southampton0 mm
  • Brighton0 mm
  • Exeter0 mm
  • Plymouth0 mm
  • Penzance0.7 mm
  • Swansea0 mm
  • Aberystwyth0 mm
  • Bangor0 mm
  • Derry0.1 mm
  • Enniskillen0 mm

Cardiff, hour by hour

ThuFriSat4°9°14°2mm13:0019:0001:0007:0013:0019:0001:0007:0013:0019:0001:0007:00
Heaviest rain 0.5 mm in the hour around Fri 08:00. Bars are rain per hour.

Wet days in the next two weeks

Days on which more than half of the 51 ECMWF runs give 1 mm or more.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated

Rain forecast: questions

What does a 40% chance of rain mean?

That, in situations like this one, it rains at that place on about four occasions in ten. It does not mean it will rain for 40% of the day, or over 40% of the area. A low chance with a high amount usually means showers: a few places get a lot, most get none.

Why use runs instead of a percentage for the second week?

Beyond a week, a single percentage hides how much the models disagree. Counting how many of the 51 ECMWF runs give at least 1 mm on a day shows the agreement directly.

Is this the same as the radar?

No. The radar shows rain that is falling now and in the last two hours. This page is the forecast. For the next hour or so, the radar is usually the better guide.