Manchester weather forecast

Wet by reputation, but the real story is the Pennines to the east and the Atlantic air funnelled in from the west.

Manchester now, 13:15

12°Overcast

Today 9° to 12°7 mph

Feels like: 9°C
Wind: 7 mph ENE
Gusts: 16 mph
Rain chance, next 12 h: 0%
Humidity: 73%
Dew point: 7°C
Cloud cover: 89%
Pressure: 1033 hPa
Visibility: Over 10 km
UV index: 0
Sunrise: 07:13
Sunset: 16:30

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model forecast for the city centre

Next 12 hours
Overcast, staying dry
9 to 12°C, gusts up to 22 mph.
High confidence
Hour by hour
Next 5 days
Dry all week
Highs 8 to 12°C, barely a millimetre of rain.
High confidence
Day by day
Days 6 to 15
A mix of wet and dry days
Most runs put highs between 5 and 14°C. Rain is favoured on 5 of 9 days.
Low confidence
See the model runs
Weeks 3 to 6
A little warmer than normal
A little wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.
Leaning only
Week by week
December and January
A little milder than normal
From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.
Leaning only
Months ahead

Manchester hour by hour

The next three days. Temperature, chance of rain and wind for each hour.

Now12°Rain chance 0%7mph
14:0012°Rain chance 0%9mph
15:0012°Rain chance 0%10mph
16:0012°Rain chance 0%10mph
17:0011°Rain chance 0%9mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%8mph
19:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
20:0010°Rain chance 0%6mph
21:0010°Rain chance 0%6mph
22:0010°Rain chance 0%6mph
23:009°Rain chance 0%6mph
Thu 59°Rain chance 0%6mph
01:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
02:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
03:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
04:008°Rain chance 0%6mph
05:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
06:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
07:009°Rain chance 0%6mph
08:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
09:0010°Rain chance 0%5mph
10:0010°Rain chance 0%5mph
11:0011°Rain chance 0%7mph
12:0011°Rain chance 0%8mph
13:0012°Rain chance 0%6mph
14:0011°Rain chance 0%9mph
15:0011°Rain chance 0%8mph
16:0011°Rain chance 0%7mph
17:0010°Rain chance 0%5mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%5mph
19:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
20:009°Rain chance 0%3mph
21:009°Rain chance 0%3mph
22:009°Rain chance 0%3mph
23:009°Rain chance 0%3mph
Fri 69°Rain chance 0%3mph
01:008°Rain chance 0%4mph
02:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
03:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
04:008°Rain chance 0%4mph
05:008°Rain chance 0%3mph
06:008°Rain chance 0%4mph
07:007°Rain chance 0%3mph
08:007°Rain chance 0%3mph
09:008°Rain chance 0%3mph
10:009°Rain chance 0%4mph
11:009°Rain chance 1%3mph
12:009°Rain chance 2%2mph

From 7°C (Sat 08:00) to 12°C (Wed 14:00) over the next three days. Line is temperature, bars are rain per hour.

Manchester 14 day forecast

Mostly dry, with rain on Tuesday. Manchester peaks at 12°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 4°C on Monday. Expect around 6mm of rain in total, falling across 1 day. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 22mph.

Today4 Nov
Overcast. Dry. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°12°
Low 9°C, high 12°C, 80% of runs between 12 and 12°C, normal high 11°C.
10mphgusts 22High confidence
Tomorrow5 Nov
Overcast. Dry. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°12°
Low 8°C, high 12°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 10°C.
9mphgusts 19High confidence
Friday6 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°10°
Low 7°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 10°C.
5mphgusts 11High confidence
Saturday7 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.6 mm in about 3 h. 19 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°9°
Low 7°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 10°C, normal high 10°C.
3mphgusts 5Medium confidence
Sunday8 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
6°8°
Low 6°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 10°C, normal high 10°C.
3mphgusts 6Low confidence
Monday9 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 2 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°8°
Low 4°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 10°C, normal high 10°C.
5mphgusts 10High confidence
Tuesday10 Nov
Drizzle. 5.5 mm in about 14 h. 28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
6°8°
Low 6°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 12°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 21Low confidence
Wednesday11 Nov
Overcast. Little or no rain. 31 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°10°
Low 8°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 22Medium confidence
Thursday12 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 14 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°9°
Low 2°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 5 and 12°C, normal high 9°C.
10mphgusts 23Low confidence
Friday13 Nov
Clear sky. Dry. 20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°7°
Low 2°C, high 7°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 11°C, normal high 9°C.
10mphgusts 25Medium confidence
Saturday14 Nov
Mostly clear. Dry. 20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°7°
Low 2°C, high 7°C, 80% of runs between 5 and 11°C, normal high 9°C.
9mphgusts 25Medium confidence
Sunday15 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
1°9°
Low 1°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 5 and 12°C, normal high 9°C.
9mphgusts 22Low confidence
Monday16 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.6 mm in about 6 h. 30 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°10°
Low 7°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 13°C, normal high 9°C.
6mphgusts 17Low confidence
Tuesday17 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 38 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°10°
Low 3°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 5 and 13°C, normal high 9°C.
5mphgusts 11Low confidence

Low to highWhere 80% of runs put the highNormal high, 1991 to 2020

Source: Open-Meteo, ECMWF and Copernicus ERA5. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Rain agreement and confidence from the 51-run ECMWF ensemble; normals 1991 to 2020

How far can you trust it?

Each faint line is one run of the ECMWF ensemble: the same model started 51 times with slightly different starting conditions. Where the lines bunch, the forecast is solid. Where they fan out, the weather is genuinely undecided. For Manchester, the runs part company from Sunday.

Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

Daytime high by day from the ensemble, with the range of runs, rain agreement and confidence
Day	Most likely high	Range (80% of runs)	Normal	Rain	Confidence
Today	12°C	12 to 12°C	11°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Thu 5 Nov	11°C	10 to 11°C	10°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Fri 6 Nov	11°C	10 to 11°C	10°C	5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Sat 7 Nov	10°C	9 to 10°C	10°C	19 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sun 8 Nov	9°C	8 to 10°C	10°C	22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Mon 9 Nov	9°C	8 to 10°C	10°C	2 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Tue 10 Nov	10°C	8 to 12°C	10°C	28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 11 Nov	10°C	8 to 14°C	10°C	31 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Thu 12 Nov	9°C	5 to 12°C	9°C	14 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Fri 13 Nov	8°C	6 to 11°C	9°C	20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 14 Nov	8°C	5 to 11°C	9°C	20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sun 15 Nov	9°C	5 to 12°C	9°C	24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Mon 16 Nov	10°C	6 to 13°C	9°C	30 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Tue 17 Nov	10°C	5 to 13°C	9°C	38 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 18 Nov	9°C	5 to 13°C	9°C	30 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, updated every 6 hours

Manchester long range forecast: the next six weeks

Beyond two weeks no model can tell you about a single day, but it can tell you whether a whole week leans warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. These figures compare the ECMWF extended-range forecast with the same model's climate for the time of year.

This week
2 Nov to 8 Nov
Close to normal
−0.1°C
Drier than normal
−18 mm
Temperatures close to normal, drier than normal.
Next week
9 Nov to 15 Nov
Close to normal
−0.2°C
A little drier than normal
−3 mm
Temperatures close to normal, a little drier than normal.
Week 3
16 Nov to 22 Nov
Warmer than normal
+1.6°C
Wetter than normal
+6 mm
Warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 4
23 Nov to 29 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+0.9°C
Wetter than normal
+5 mm
A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 5
30 Nov to 6 Dec
A little warmer than normal
+0.6°C
Close to normal rainfall
+1 mm
A little warmer than normal, rainfall close to normal.
Week 6
7 Dec to 13 Dec
A little milder than normal
+0.5°C
Close to normal rainfall
+2 mm
A little milder than normal, rainfall close to normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF EC46 extended range, 51 runs, updated daily

Months ahead

The seasonal model nudges the odds for whole months. Over the UK its skill is modest, so treat a leaning as a slight tilt and anything within half a degree as no signal at all.

Monthly temperature and rainfall leaning against normal, ECMWF SEAS5
Month	Temperature	Against normal	Rainfall	Against normal
November 2026	Close to normal	+0.4°C	A little wetter than normal	+11 mm
December 2026	A little milder than normal	+1.0°C	A little wetter than normal	+12 mm
January 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.7°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
February 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.6°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
March 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.7°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
April 2027	A little warmer than normal	+1.0°C	Close to normal rainfall	+6 mm

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, updated on the 5th of each month

How accurate are long range forecasts?

Air quality and pollen in Manchester

European AQI now: 23 (Fair)
Fine particles (PM2.5): 7 µg/m³
UV index now: 1
Highest pollen: Very low

Source: Copernicus CAMS and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model estimates from CAMS

Manchester climate: what is normal?

Manchester sits on the western side of the Pennines with an open run to the Irish Sea. Moist westerly air rises as it meets the hills, which squeezes out rain over the city and, even more, over the moors that ring it to the north and east.

That makes it wetter than Leeds just over the hills, but much drier than the high ground it looks up to. The city's mild winters come from the same Atlantic air: frost and lying snow are short-lived in the centre.

What to watch for in Manchester

Drizzle days. Low cloud on a westerly can give hours of light rain that adds up slowly. The hours of rain matter more than the millimetres.
Snow on the hills first. In a cold spell, snow often settles on the Pennine edges (Saddleworth, the A62 and M62 over the tops) while Manchester itself gets sleet or rain.
Showers off the Irish Sea. Behind a cold front, lines of showers can stream in from the north-west through the afternoon, with sunshine in between.

Average highAverage lowRain, mm a month

Across 1991 to 2020, Manchester averaged 1002 mm of rain a year over about 172 wet days, and about 2564 hours of sunshine. The wettest month was December, the driest April. The warmest day in the record for this grid point reached 31.7°C (25 Jul 2019).

Manchester: monthly averages 1991 to 2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis
Month	High	Low	Rain	Days with 1 mm+	Sunshine	Frost nights
January	6.5°C	1.6°C	89 mm	15	106 h	10
February	7.2°C	1.4°C	78 mm	14	143 h	10
March	9.3°C	2.4°C	75 mm	14	212 h	7
April	12.1°C	4.1°C	67 mm	13	268 h	3
May	15.1°C	7.0°C	70 mm	13	319 h	0
June	17.6°C	10.0°C	86 mm	14	303 h	0
July	19.3°C	11.9°C	86 mm	16	317 h	0
August	18.9°C	11.9°C	91 mm	15	284 h	0
September	16.6°C	9.8°C	78 mm	13	225 h	0
October	13.0°C	7.2°C	92 mm	15	171 h	1
November	9.2°C	4.2°C	90 mm	16	117 h	4
December	6.8°C	2.0°C	100 mm	15	99 h	9

Source: Copernicus ERA5 and Open-Meteo. ERA5 reanalysis grid values for the city, 1991 to 2020; these are not Met Office station averages

Manchester weather questions

Will it rain in Manchester this week?

How reliable is the 14 day forecast for Manchester?

The 51 ECMWF runs agree well for the first few days, then spread out. From Sunday 8 Nov confidence is low: by the last day, the middle 80% of runs put the high between 5 and 13°C.

What is the weather usually like in Manchester in November?

From 1991 to 2020, November in Manchester averaged a high of 9.2°C and a low of 4.2°C, with about 90 mm of rain over 16 wet days (ERA5 reanalysis).

What makes Manchester's weather different?