Birmingham weather forecast

The heart of England sits on a plateau, a little higher and a little colder than most people expect.

Birmingham now, 13:15

11°Overcast

Today 8° to 11°10 mph

Feels like: 7°C
Wind: 10 mph ENE
Gusts: 22 mph
Rain chance, next 12 h: 5%
Humidity: 66%
Dew point: 5°C
Cloud cover: 100%
Pressure: 1031 hPa
Visibility: Over 10 km
UV index: 0
Sunrise: 07:09
Sunset: 16:32

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model forecast for the city centre

Next 12 hours
Rain at times, 0.4 mm
8 to 11°C, gusts up to 24 mph.
High confidence
Hour by hour
Next 5 days
Dry all week
Highs 8 to 10°C, no rain worth noting.
High confidence
Day by day
Days 6 to 15
Leaning drier
Most runs put highs between 5 and 14°C. Rain is favoured on 2 of 9 days.
Low confidence
See the model runs
Weeks 3 to 6
A little warmer than normal
A little wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.
Leaning only
Week by week
December and January
A little milder than normal
From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.
Leaning only
Months ahead

Birmingham hour by hour

The next three days. Temperature, chance of rain and wind for each hour.

Now11°Rain chance 5%11mph
14:0010°Rain chance 2%8mph
15:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
16:0010°Rain chance 0%8mph
17:009°Rain chance 0%9mph
18:009°Rain chance 0%9mph
19:009°Rain chance 0%9mph
20:008°Rain chance 0%9mph
21:009°Rain chance 0%9mph
22:008°Rain chance 0%8mph
23:008°Rain chance 0%9mph
Thu 58°Rain chance 0%8mph
01:008°Rain chance 0%8mph
02:007°Rain chance 0%8mph
03:007°Rain chance 0%7mph
04:006°Rain chance 0%7mph
05:006°Rain chance 0%7mph
06:006°Rain chance 0%7mph
07:006°Rain chance 0%6mph
08:006°Rain chance 0%6mph
09:007°Rain chance 0%6mph
10:008°Rain chance 0%8mph
11:009°Rain chance 0%9mph
12:009°Rain chance 0%9mph
13:0010°Rain chance 0%8mph
14:0010°Rain chance 0%9mph
15:0010°Rain chance 0%9mph
16:0010°Rain chance 0%9mph
17:009°Rain chance 0%9mph
18:009°Rain chance 0%8mph
19:009°Rain chance 0%8mph
20:008°Rain chance 0%8mph
21:008°Rain chance 0%7mph
22:008°Rain chance 1%7mph
23:008°Rain chance 2%7mph
Fri 68°Rain chance 2%7mph
01:008°Rain chance 1%6mph
02:008°Rain chance 1%6mph
03:008°Rain chance 0%6mph
04:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
05:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
06:008°Rain chance 2%5mph
07:008°Rain chance 7%4mph
08:008°Rain chance 14%4mph
09:008°Rain chance 18%5mph
10:008°Rain chance 18%5mph
11:008°Rain chance 16%3mph
12:008°Rain chance 14%3mph

From 6°C (Thu 07:00) to 11°C (Wed 13:00) over the next three days. Line is temperature, bars are rain per hour.

Birmingham 14 day forecast

Mostly dry, with rain on Tuesday. Birmingham peaks at 10°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 4°C on Monday. Expect around 23mm of rain in total, falling across 1 day. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 27mph.

Today4 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.8 mm in about 6 h. 1 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°11°
Low 8°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 12°C.
11mphgusts 24High confidence
Tomorrow5 Nov
Overcast. Dry. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
6°10°
Low 6°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 10°C, normal high 10°C.
9mphgusts 19High confidence
Friday6 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°9°
Low 7°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 10°C, normal high 10°C.
7mphgusts 14Medium confidence
Saturday7 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°9°
Low 5°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 9°C, normal high 10°C.
3mphgusts 7Medium confidence
Sunday8 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 10 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°9°
Low 5°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 9°C, normal high 10°C.
4mphgusts 7High confidence
Monday9 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 4 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°8°
Low 4°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 10°C, normal high 10°C.
8mphgusts 16High confidence
Tuesday10 Nov
Light rain. 22.3 mm in about 20 h. 33 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°8°
Low 7°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.
12mphgusts 23Medium confidence
Wednesday11 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.7 mm in about 7 h. 38 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°10°
Low 7°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.
12mphgusts 27Low confidence
Thursday12 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°9°
Low 3°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 11°C, normal high 9°C.
10mphgusts 24Low confidence
Friday13 Nov
Partly cloudy. Dry. 11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°6°
Low 2°C, high 6°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 11°C, normal high 9°C.
13mphgusts 29Medium confidence
Saturday14 Nov
Mostly clear. Dry. 12 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°6°
Low 2°C, high 6°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 12°C, normal high 9°C.
13mphgusts 29Low confidence
Sunday15 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 12 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
1°8°
Low 1°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 5 and 12°C, normal high 9°C.
9mphgusts 29Low confidence
Monday16 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 21 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°9°
Low 4°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 5 and 13°C, normal high 9°C.
8mphgusts 21Low confidence
Tuesday17 Nov
Fog. Dry. 20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°8°
Low 3°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 13°C, normal high 9°C.
7mphgusts 14Low confidence

Low to highWhere 80% of runs put the highNormal high, 1991 to 2020

Source: Open-Meteo, ECMWF and Copernicus ERA5. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Rain agreement and confidence from the 51-run ECMWF ensemble; normals 1991 to 2020

How far can you trust it?

Each faint line is one run of the ECMWF ensemble: the same model started 51 times with slightly different starting conditions. Where the lines bunch, the forecast is solid. Where they fan out, the weather is genuinely undecided. For Birmingham, the runs part company from Wednesday.

Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

Daytime high by day from the ensemble, with the range of runs, rain agreement and confidence
Day	Most likely high	Range (80% of runs)	Normal	Rain	Confidence
Today	11°C	10 to 11°C	12°C	1 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Thu 5 Nov	9°C	9 to 10°C	10°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Fri 6 Nov	9°C	8 to 10°C	10°C	11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 7 Nov	9°C	8 to 9°C	10°C	18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sun 8 Nov	9°C	8 to 9°C	10°C	10 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Mon 9 Nov	8°C	7 to 10°C	10°C	4 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Tue 10 Nov	9°C	8 to 14°C	10°C	33 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Wed 11 Nov	10°C	7 to 14°C	10°C	38 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Thu 12 Nov	9°C	6 to 11°C	9°C	22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Fri 13 Nov	8°C	6 to 11°C	9°C	11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 14 Nov	8°C	6 to 12°C	9°C	12 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sun 15 Nov	8°C	5 to 12°C	9°C	12 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Mon 16 Nov	9°C	5 to 13°C	9°C	21 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Tue 17 Nov	10°C	6 to 13°C	9°C	20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 18 Nov	9°C	5 to 13°C	9°C	20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, updated every 6 hours

Birmingham long range forecast: the next six weeks

Beyond two weeks no model can tell you about a single day, but it can tell you whether a whole week leans warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. These figures compare the ECMWF extended-range forecast with the same model's climate for the time of year.

This week
2 Nov to 8 Nov
A little colder than normal
−0.7°C
Drier than normal
−14 mm
A little colder than normal, drier than normal.
Next week
9 Nov to 15 Nov
Close to normal
−0.1°C
A little wetter than normal
+3 mm
Temperatures close to normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 3
16 Nov to 22 Nov
Warmer than normal
+1.6°C
A little wetter than normal
+3 mm
Warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 4
23 Nov to 29 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+1.0°C
Wetter than normal
+5 mm
A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 5
30 Nov to 6 Dec
A little warmer than normal
+0.6°C
Wetter than normal
+3 mm
A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 6
7 Dec to 13 Dec
A little milder than normal
+0.5°C
A little wetter than normal
+2 mm
A little milder than normal, a little wetter than normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF EC46 extended range, 51 runs, updated daily

Months ahead

The seasonal model nudges the odds for whole months. Over the UK its skill is modest, so treat a leaning as a slight tilt and anything within half a degree as no signal at all.

Monthly temperature and rainfall leaning against normal, ECMWF SEAS5
Month	Temperature	Against normal	Rainfall	Against normal
November 2026	A little warmer than normal	+0.5°C	A little wetter than normal	+12 mm
December 2026	A little milder than normal	+1.1°C	A little wetter than normal	+15 mm
January 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.8°C	A little wetter than normal	+7 mm
February 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.6°C	A little wetter than normal	+7 mm
March 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.7°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
April 2027	A little warmer than normal	+1.0°C	Close to normal rainfall	+3 mm

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, updated on the 5th of each month

How accurate are long range forecasts?

Air quality and pollen in Birmingham

European AQI now: 16 (Good)
Fine particles (PM2.5): 4 µg/m³
UV index now: 1
Highest pollen: Very low

Source: Copernicus CAMS and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model estimates from CAMS

Birmingham climate: what is normal?

Birmingham is built on a plateau about 100 to 200 metres above sea level, about as far from the sea as you can get in Britain. With no sea to soften the extremes, the city sees slightly colder winter nights than coastal cities at the same latitude and warm, often humid summer days.

Rain arrives mostly on westerly fronts that have already crossed the Welsh hills, so totals are moderate. Snow is more common here than in London or Bristol because of the height of the ground.

What to watch for in Birmingham

Height matters for snow. When it is close to freezing, a hundred metres of altitude decides between rain and settling snow. The higher southern and western suburbs often turn white first.
Fog in the valleys around. On calm autumn and winter mornings, fog collects in the Severn and Trent valleys and around the M42, even when the city centre is clear.
Summer storms. Inland heat and moist air make the Midlands a breeding ground for summer thunderstorms on hot afternoons.

Average highAverage lowRain, mm a month

Across 1991 to 2020, Birmingham averaged 722 mm of rain a year over about 138 wet days, and about 2656 hours of sunshine. The wettest month was June, the driest February. The warmest day in the record for this grid point reached 31.8°C (31 Jul 2020).

Birmingham: monthly averages 1991 to 2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis
Month	High	Low	Rain	Days with 1 mm+	Sunshine	Frost nights
January	6.6°C	1.7°C	55 mm	12	115 h	10
February	7.3°C	1.5°C	47 mm	10	147 h	10
March	9.6°C	2.5°C	50 mm	11	215 h	7
April	12.3°C	4.1°C	56 mm	12	270 h	3
May	15.4°C	7.1°C	63 mm	12	317 h	0
June	18.2°C	10.1°C	69 mm	12	316 h	0
July	20.3°C	12.1°C	66 mm	12	330 h	0
August	19.9°C	12.1°C	64 mm	11	300 h	0
September	17.3°C	10.0°C	57 mm	10	230 h	0
October	13.4°C	7.4°C	67 mm	11	178 h	1
November	9.4°C	4.3°C	65 mm	12	126 h	4
December	6.9°C	2.2°C	63 mm	12	112 h	9

Source: Copernicus ERA5 and Open-Meteo. ERA5 reanalysis grid values for the city, 1991 to 2020; these are not Met Office station averages

Birmingham weather questions

Will it rain in Birmingham this week?

How reliable is the 14 day forecast for Birmingham?

The 51 ECMWF runs agree well for the first few days, then spread out. From Wednesday 11 Nov confidence is low: by the last day, the middle 80% of runs put the high between 5 and 13°C.

What is the weather usually like in Birmingham in November?

From 1991 to 2020, November in Birmingham averaged a high of 9.4°C and a low of 4.3°C, with about 65 mm of rain over 12 wet days (ERA5 reanalysis).

What makes Birmingham's weather different?