Long Range Weather

London weather forecast

Sheltered, low-lying and the warmest big city in the UK, which changes how rain, frost and heat play out.

London now, 13:15

11°OvercastOvercast

Today 9° to 11°13 mph

Feels like
6°C
Wind
13 mph ENE
Gusts
29 mph
Rain chance, next 12 h
27%
Humidity
54%
Dew point
2°C
Cloud cover
94%
Pressure
1029 hPa
Visibility
Over 10 km
UV index
0
Sunrise
06:59
Sunset
16:28

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated . Model forecast for the city centre

The outlook at a glance

  1. Next 12 hours

    Rain at times, 0.4 mm

    10 to 11°C, gusts up to 29 mph.

    High confidence

    Hour by hour

  2. Next 5 days

    Mostly dry, with rain on Saturday

    Highs 10 to 11°C, about 5 mm of rain in total.

    High confidence

    Day by day

  3. Days 6 to 15

    A mix of wet and dry days

    Most runs put highs between 6 and 16°C. Rain is favoured on 3 of 9 days.

    Low confidence

    See the model runs

  4. Weeks 3 to 6

    A little warmer than normal

    A little wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.

    Leaning only

    Week by week

  5. December and January

    A little milder than normal

    From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.

    Leaning only

    Months ahead

London hour by hour

The next three days. Temperature, chance of rain and wind for each hour.
  1. NowOvercast11°Rain chance 0%13mph
  2. 14:00Partly cloudy11°Rain chance 0%13mph
  3. 15:00Partly cloudy11°Rain chance 0%13mph
  4. 16:00Overcast10°Rain chance 0%12mph
  5. 17:00Overcast10°Rain chance 0%12mph
  6. 18:00Overcast10°Rain chance 0%9mph
  7. 19:00Overcast10°Rain chance 5%7mph
  8. 20:00Overcast10°Rain chance 12%7mph
  9. 21:00Overcast11°Rain chance 18%11mph
  10. 22:00Light drizzle10°Rain chance 23%8mph
  11. 23:00Light drizzle10°Rain chance 27%7mph
  12. Thu 5Overcast10°Rain chance 27%5mph
  13. 01:00Overcast10°Rain chance 21%7mph
  14. 02:00Overcast10°Rain chance 11%8mph
  15. 03:00Overcast10°Rain chance 4%8mph
  16. 04:00Overcast10°Rain chance 2%8mph
  17. 05:00Overcast9°Rain chance 3%8mph
  18. 06:00Overcast9°Rain chance 4%8mph
  19. 07:00Overcast9°Rain chance 3%8mph
  20. 08:00Partly cloudy9°Rain chance 1%8mph
  21. 09:00Overcast10°Rain chance 0%8mph
  22. 10:00Partly cloudy11°Rain chance 0%9mph
  23. 11:00Partly cloudy11°Rain chance 0%10mph
  24. 12:00Partly cloudy11°Rain chance 0%9mph
  25. 13:00Partly cloudy11°Rain chance 0%9mph
  26. 14:00Partly cloudy11°Rain chance 0%8mph
  27. 15:00Overcast11°Rain chance 0%8mph
  28. 16:00Overcast11°Rain chance 0%9mph
  29. 17:00Partly cloudy11°Rain chance 0%9mph
  30. 18:00Overcast10°Rain chance 0%9mph
  31. 19:00Overcast10°Rain chance 1%7mph
  32. 20:00Overcast10°Rain chance 1%7mph
  33. 21:00Overcast10°Rain chance 2%6mph
  34. 22:00Overcast10°Rain chance 2%5mph
  35. 23:00Overcast10°Rain chance 2%6mph
  36. Fri 6Overcast10°Rain chance 2%5mph
  37. 01:00Overcast10°Rain chance 1%5mph
  38. 02:00Overcast10°Rain chance 0%5mph
  39. 03:00Overcast10°Rain chance 0%6mph
  40. 04:00Overcast10°Rain chance 3%6mph
  41. 05:00Overcast10°Rain chance 8%7mph
  42. 06:00Overcast10°Rain chance 12%6mph
  43. 07:00Light drizzle10°Rain chance 16%5mph
  44. 08:00Light drizzle9°Rain chance 20%5mph
  45. 09:00Overcast9°Rain chance 22%4mph
  46. 10:00Overcast10°Rain chance 20%3mph
  47. 11:00Mostly clear10°Rain chance 16%2mph
  48. 12:00Overcast10°Rain chance 12%2mph
ThuFriSat4°9°14°13:0019:0001:0007:0013:0019:0001:0007:0013:0019:0001:0007:00
From 7°C (Sat 07:00) to 11°C (Thu 13:00) over the next three days. Line is temperature, bars are rain per hour.

London 14 day forecast

Dry start, turning wet from Saturday. London peaks at 11°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 6°C on Monday. Expect around 38mm of rain in total, falling across 3 days. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 24mph.

London daily forecast

  1. Light drizzleToday4 Nov
    Light drizzle. 0.4 mm in about 2 h. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    9°11°

    Low 9°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 13°C.

    14mphgusts 31High confidence
  2. OvercastTomorrow5 Nov
    Overcast. Dry. 5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    9°11°

    Low 9°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 12°C.

    10mphgusts 22High confidence
  3. Light drizzleFriday6 Nov
    Light drizzle. 0.5 mm in about 2 h. 15 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    9°10°

    Low 9°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 12°C, normal high 12°C.

    7mphgusts 14Medium confidence
  4. DrizzleSaturday7 Nov
    Drizzle. 4.2 mm in about 9 h. 18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    7°11°

    Low 7°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 11°C, normal high 12°C.

    4mphgusts 9Medium confidence
  5. OvercastSunday8 Nov
    Overcast. Dry. 5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    7°10°

    Low 7°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 11°C, normal high 12°C.

    4mphgusts 8High confidence
  6. Light drizzleMonday9 Nov
    Light drizzle. 0.5 mm in about 5 h. 7 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    6°10°

    Low 6°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 11°C, normal high 12°C.

    9mphgusts 17Medium confidence
  7. Light rainTuesday10 Nov
    Light rain. 18.7 mm in about 19 h. 36 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    9°11°

    Low 9°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 16°C, normal high 12°C.

    11mphgusts 22Low confidence
  8. Heavy drizzleWednesday11 Nov
    Heavy drizzle. 13.8 mm in about 23 h. 43 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    10°11°

    Low 10°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 16°C, normal high 12°C.

    11mphgusts 24Low confidence
  9. DrizzleThursday12 Nov
    Drizzle. 1.2 mm in about 7 h. 29 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    8°10°

    Low 8°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.

    11mphgusts 24Low confidence
  10. OvercastFriday13 Nov
    Overcast. Dry. 18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    3°8°

    Low 3°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.

    9mphgusts 19Low confidence
  11. Clear skySaturday14 Nov
    Clear sky. Dry. 15 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    2°7°

    Low 2°C, high 7°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.

    10mphgusts 33Low confidence
  12. Partly cloudySunday15 Nov
    Partly cloudy. Dry. 12 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    1°7°

    Low 1°C, high 7°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.

    8mphgusts 18Low confidence
  13. OvercastMonday16 Nov
    Overcast. Dry. 20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    3°9°

    Low 3°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.

    6mphgusts 17Low confidence
  14. OvercastTuesday17 Nov
    Overcast. Dry. 22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
    2°9°

    Low 2°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.

    5mphgusts 11Low confidence

Low to highWhere 80% of runs put the highNormal high, 1991 to 2020

Source: Open-Meteo, ECMWF and Copernicus ERA5. Updated . Rain agreement and confidence from the 51-run ECMWF ensemble; normals 1991 to 2020

How far can you trust it?

Each faint line is one run of the ECMWF ensemble: the same model started 51 times with slightly different starting conditions. Where the lines bunch, the forecast is solid. Where they fan out, the weather is genuinely undecided. For London, the runs part company from Tuesday.
2°6°10°14°18°RainTodayThuFriSatSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSunMonTueWed
Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

London: daytime highs from 51 runs of the ECMWF ensemble over 15 days. The most likely high runs from 10°C today to 10°C on Wed 18 Nov, and by then the middle 80% of runs spans 6°C to 14°C. Confidence drops to low from Tue 10 Nov.

Daytime high by day from the ensemble, with the range of runs, rain agreement and confidence
DayMost likely highRange (80% of runs)NormalRainConfidence
Today10°C10 to 11°C13°CNone of the 51 runs give 1 mm or moreHigh
Thu 5 Nov10°C10 to 11°C12°C5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreHigh
Fri 6 Nov11°C10 to 12°C12°C15 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreMedium
Sat 7 Nov10°C9 to 11°C12°C18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreMedium
Sun 8 Nov10°C8 to 11°C12°C5 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreHigh
Mon 9 Nov10°C8 to 11°C12°C7 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreMedium
Tue 10 Nov11°C9 to 16°C12°C36 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow
Wed 11 Nov12°C9 to 16°C12°C43 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow
Thu 12 Nov10°C7 to 14°C10°C29 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow
Fri 13 Nov9°C7 to 13°C10°C18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow
Sat 14 Nov10°C6 to 13°C10°C15 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow
Sun 15 Nov10°C6 to 14°C10°C12 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow
Mon 16 Nov10°C6 to 14°C10°C20 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow
Tue 17 Nov11°C7 to 14°C10°C22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow
Wed 18 Nov10°C6 to 14°C10°C11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or moreLow

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated . ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, updated every 6 hours

London long range forecast: the next six weeks

Beyond two weeks no model can tell you about a single day, but it can tell you whether a whole week leans warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. These figures compare the ECMWF extended-range forecast with the same model's climate for the time of year.

  1. This week

    2 Nov to 8 Nov

    A little colder than normal

    −1.1°C

    Drier than normal

    −12 mm

    A little colder than normal, drier than normal.

  2. Next week

    9 Nov to 15 Nov

    Close to normal

    +0.3°C

    Wetter than normal

    +5 mm

    Temperatures close to normal, wetter than normal.

  3. Week 3

    16 Nov to 22 Nov

    Warmer than normal

    +1.6°C

    A little wetter than normal

    +3 mm

    Warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.

  4. Week 4

    23 Nov to 29 Nov

    A little warmer than normal

    +1.2°C

    Wetter than normal

    +4 mm

    A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.

  5. Week 5

    30 Nov to 6 Dec

    A little warmer than normal

    +0.8°C

    Wetter than normal

    +4 mm

    A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.

  6. Week 6

    7 Dec to 13 Dec

    A little milder than normal

    +0.6°C

    A little wetter than normal

    +3 mm

    A little milder than normal, a little wetter than normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated . ECMWF EC46 extended range, 51 runs, updated daily

Months ahead

The seasonal model nudges the odds for whole months. Over the UK its skill is modest, so treat a leaning as a slight tilt and anything within half a degree as no signal at all.
Monthly temperature and rainfall leaning against normal, ECMWF SEAS5
MonthTemperatureAgainst normalRainfallAgainst normal
November 2026A little warmer than normal+0.6°CA little wetter than normal+9 mm
December 2026A little milder than normal+1.3°CA little wetter than normal+10 mm
January 2027A little milder than normal+0.9°CA little wetter than normal+6 mm
February 2027A little milder than normal+0.7°CA little wetter than normal+6 mm
March 2027A little warmer than normal+0.7°CClose to normal rainfall+4 mm
April 2027A little warmer than normal+1.0°CClose to normal rainfall+2 mm

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated . ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, updated on the 5th of each month

How accurate are long range forecasts?

Air quality and pollen in London

European AQI now
25 (Fair)
Fine particles (PM2.5)
6 µg/m³
UV index now
0
Highest pollen
Very low

Source: Copernicus CAMS and Open-Meteo. Updated . Model estimates from CAMS

London climate: what is normal?

London sits in the Thames basin, far from the Atlantic and shielded by higher ground on most sides. Fronts arriving from the west have usually dropped much of their rain over Wales and the West Country first, so London is one of the drier parts of the UK.

The city itself holds heat. Brick, concrete and traffic keep central London several degrees warmer than the surrounding countryside on calm, clear nights, which is why frost in Westminster is rarer than in the Chilterns or the North Downs.

What to watch for in London

  • Summer heat builds here first. On a hot spell the south-east, and London in particular, records the highest temperatures in the country. Nights can stay above 20°C in the centre while the suburbs cool.
  • The downpours come from showers. Summer thunderstorms can drop a month's rain on one borough and leave the next one dry. A low rain chance with a high amount means exactly that: a few places get a lot.
  • Suburban frost. Forecasts are for the grid point. Outer boroughs and the Green Belt can be 3 to 5 degrees colder than the centre on still winter nights.
55Jan47Feb43Mar49Apr52May56Jun55Jul61Aug48Sep60Oct64Nov58Dec0°12°23°mm
Average highAverage lowRain, mm a month

London, 1991 to 2020 averages: warmest in July (average high 21.8°C), coldest in February (average low 1.8°C). Bars show average monthly rainfall.

Across 1991 to 2020, London averaged 648 mm of rain a year over about 127 wet days, and about 2736 hours of sunshine. The wettest month was November, the driest March. The warmest day in the record for this grid point reached 35.2°C (25 Jul 2019).

London: monthly averages 1991 to 2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis
MonthHighLowRainDays with 1 mm+SunshineFrost nights
January7.4°C2.0°C55 mm11120 h9
February8.0°C1.8°C47 mm10147 h10
March10.5°C3.1°C43 mm10217 h5
April13.5°C4.9°C49 mm11283 h2
May16.7°C8.1°C52 mm10320 h0
June19.6°C11.1°C56 mm11325 h0
July21.8°C13.3°C55 mm11343 h0
August21.4°C13.2°C61 mm10305 h0
September18.7°C11.0°C48 mm9242 h0
October14.7°C8.2°C60 mm11187 h0
November10.4°C4.7°C64 mm11131 h3
December7.7°C2.6°C58 mm11116 h8

Source: Copernicus ERA5 and Open-Meteo. ERA5 reanalysis grid values for the city, 1991 to 2020; these are not Met Office station averages

London weather questions

Will it rain in London this week?

Dry start, turning wet from Saturday. London peaks at 11°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 6°C on Monday. Expect around 38mm of rain in total, falling across 3 days. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 24mph.

How reliable is the 14 day forecast for London?

The 51 ECMWF runs agree well for the first few days, then spread out. From Tuesday 10 Nov confidence is low: by the last day, the middle 80% of runs put the high between 6 and 14°C.

What is the weather usually like in London in November?

From 1991 to 2020, November in London averaged a high of 10.4°C and a low of 4.7°C, with about 64 mm of rain over 11 wet days (ERA5 reanalysis).

What makes London's weather different?

London sits in the Thames basin, far from the Atlantic and shielded by higher ground on most sides. Fronts arriving from the west have usually dropped much of their rain over Wales and the West Country first, so London is one of the drier parts of the UK.