Cardiff weather forecast

A coastal capital on the Bristol Channel, with the hills of the Valleys to the north and the Atlantic to the south-west.

Cardiff now, 13:15

11°Overcast

Today 9° to 11°16 mph

Feels like: 6°C
Wind: 16 mph ENE
Gusts: 34 mph
Rain chance, next 12 h: 2%
Humidity: 57%
Dew point: 3°C
Cloud cover: 91%
Pressure: 1029 hPa
Visibility: Over 10 km
UV index: 0
Sunrise: 07:11
Sunset: 16:40

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model forecast for the city centre

Next 12 hours
Overcast, staying dry
9 to 11°C, gusts up to 34 mph.
High confidence
Hour by hour
Next 5 days
Unsettled, with Saturday the best chance of a dry day
Highs 10 to 11°C, about 5 mm of rain in total.
High confidence
Day by day
Days 6 to 15
A mix of wet and dry days
Most runs put highs between 7 and 15°C. Rain is favoured on 3 of 9 days.
Low confidence
See the model runs
Weeks 3 to 6
A little warmer than normal
Wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.
Leaning only
Week by week
December and January
A little milder than normal
From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.
Leaning only
Months ahead

Cardiff hour by hour

The next three days. Temperature, chance of rain and wind for each hour.

Now11°Rain chance 2%17mph
14:0011°Rain chance 1%15mph
15:0011°Rain chance 0%13mph
16:0011°Rain chance 0%12mph
17:0011°Rain chance 0%10mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%11mph
19:0010°Rain chance 0%12mph
20:009°Rain chance 0%14mph
21:0010°Rain chance 0%10mph
22:0010°Rain chance 0%10mph
23:009°Rain chance 0%10mph
Thu 59°Rain chance 0%10mph
01:009°Rain chance 5%9mph
02:009°Rain chance 13%9mph
03:009°Rain chance 20%9mph
04:009°Rain chance 28%7mph
05:009°Rain chance 35%7mph
06:008°Rain chance 39%8mph
07:008°Rain chance 38%7mph
08:008°Rain chance 33%9mph
09:008°Rain chance 27%9mph
10:009°Rain chance 18%10mph
11:0010°Rain chance 8%11mph
12:0010°Rain chance 0%11mph
13:0011°Rain chance 0%10mph
14:0011°Rain chance 0%9mph
15:0011°Rain chance 0%11mph
16:0011°Rain chance 0%9mph
17:0011°Rain chance 0%8mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%6mph
19:0010°Rain chance 2%8mph
20:0010°Rain chance 6%8mph
21:0010°Rain chance 10%8mph
22:0010°Rain chance 17%8mph
23:009°Rain chance 25%8mph
Fri 69°Rain chance 29%8mph
01:009°Rain chance 24%8mph
02:008°Rain chance 15%8mph
03:008°Rain chance 8%8mph
04:008°Rain chance 5%8mph
05:008°Rain chance 5%8mph
06:008°Rain chance 6%7mph
07:008°Rain chance 9%7mph
08:008°Rain chance 13%7mph
09:008°Rain chance 16%6mph
10:008°Rain chance 16%7mph
11:009°Rain chance 14%7mph
12:009°Rain chance 12%7mph

From 6°C (Sat 06:00) to 11°C (Wed 13:00) over the next three days. Line is temperature, bars are rain per hour.

Cardiff 14 day forecast

Unsettled, with Saturday the best chance of a dry day. Cardiff peaks at 11°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 4°C on Sunday. Expect around 30mm of rain in total, falling across 4 days. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 34mph.

Today4 Nov
Light drizzle. Little or no rain. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°11°
Low 9°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 12°C.
17mphgusts 34High confidence
Tomorrow5 Nov
Light drizzle. 1.2 mm in about 6 h. 25 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°11°
Low 8°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
11mphgusts 23Low confidence
Friday6 Nov
Drizzle. 1.7 mm in about 7 h. 16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°10°
Low 8°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
8mphgusts 17Medium confidence
Saturday7 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
6°10°
Low 6°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
5mphgusts 9Medium confidence
Sunday8 Nov
Mostly clear. Dry. 4 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°11°
Low 4°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 12°C, normal high 11°C.
7mphgusts 13High confidence
Monday9 Nov
Light drizzle. 1.8 mm in about 8 h. 10 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
5°10°
Low 5°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 11°C, normal high 11°C.
13mphgusts 25Medium confidence
Tuesday10 Nov
Light rain. 24.9 mm in about 19 h. 39 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°9°
Low 9°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 15°C, normal high 11°C.
15mphgusts 29Low confidence
Wednesday11 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.6 mm in about 6 h. 43 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°11°
Low 9°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 15°C, normal high 11°C.
17mphgusts 34Medium confidence
Thursday12 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°10°
Low 4°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
15mphgusts 30Low confidence
Friday13 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 15 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°9°
Low 3°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 24Medium confidence
Saturday14 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 17 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°8°
Low 3°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
11mphgusts 24Medium confidence
Sunday15 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°9°
Low 2°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.
8mphgusts 20Medium confidence
Monday16 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°9°
Low 3°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.
7mphgusts 15Low confidence
Tuesday17 Nov
Fog. Dry. 27 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
1°9°
Low 1°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 14°C, normal high 10°C.
6mphgusts 10Low confidence

Low to highWhere 80% of runs put the highNormal high, 1991 to 2020

Source: Open-Meteo, ECMWF and Copernicus ERA5. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Rain agreement and confidence from the 51-run ECMWF ensemble; normals 1991 to 2020

How far can you trust it?

Each faint line is one run of the ECMWF ensemble: the same model started 51 times with slightly different starting conditions. Where the lines bunch, the forecast is solid. Where they fan out, the weather is genuinely undecided. For Cardiff, the runs part company from Thursday.

Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

Daytime high by day from the ensemble, with the range of runs, rain agreement and confidence
Day	Most likely high	Range (80% of runs)	Normal	Rain	Confidence
Today	10°C	10 to 11°C	12°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Thu 5 Nov	10°C	10 to 11°C	11°C	25 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Fri 6 Nov	10°C	9 to 11°C	11°C	16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 7 Nov	11°C	9 to 11°C	11°C	11 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sun 8 Nov	10°C	9 to 12°C	11°C	4 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Mon 9 Nov	9°C	8 to 11°C	11°C	10 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Tue 10 Nov	10°C	9 to 15°C	11°C	39 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 11 Nov	11°C	9 to 15°C	11°C	43 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Thu 12 Nov	10°C	8 to 13°C	10°C	22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Fri 13 Nov	10°C	8 to 13°C	10°C	15 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 14 Nov	9°C	7 to 13°C	10°C	17 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sun 15 Nov	10°C	8 to 14°C	10°C	16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Mon 16 Nov	11°C	7 to 14°C	10°C	23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Tue 17 Nov	12°C	8 to 14°C	10°C	27 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 18 Nov	11°C	7 to 14°C	10°C	22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, updated every 6 hours

Cardiff long range forecast: the next six weeks

Beyond two weeks no model can tell you about a single day, but it can tell you whether a whole week leans warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. These figures compare the ECMWF extended-range forecast with the same model's climate for the time of year.

This week
2 Nov to 8 Nov
A little colder than normal
−1.4°C
Drier than normal
−25 mm
A little colder than normal, drier than normal.
Next week
9 Nov to 15 Nov
Close to normal
−0.2°C
Close to normal rainfall
−1 mm
No clear signal either way: expect typical weather for the time of year.
Week 3
16 Nov to 22 Nov
Warmer than normal
+1.6°C
Wetter than normal
+8 mm
Warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 4
23 Nov to 29 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+1.2°C
Wetter than normal
+8 mm
A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 5
30 Nov to 6 Dec
A little warmer than normal
+0.6°C
A little wetter than normal
+5 mm
A little warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 6
7 Dec to 13 Dec
A little milder than normal
+0.5°C
Close to normal rainfall
+2 mm
A little milder than normal, rainfall close to normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF EC46 extended range, 51 runs, updated daily

Months ahead

The seasonal model nudges the odds for whole months. Over the UK its skill is modest, so treat a leaning as a slight tilt and anything within half a degree as no signal at all.

Monthly temperature and rainfall leaning against normal, ECMWF SEAS5
Month	Temperature	Against normal	Rainfall	Against normal
November 2026	A little warmer than normal	+0.5°C	A little wetter than normal	+17 mm
December 2026	A little milder than normal	+1.1°C	A little wetter than normal	+22 mm
January 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.8°C	Close to normal rainfall	+7 mm
February 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.7°C	Close to normal rainfall	+7 mm
March 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.7°C	Close to normal rainfall	+6 mm
April 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.9°C	A little wetter than normal	+7 mm

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, updated on the 5th of each month

How accurate are long range forecasts?

Air quality and pollen in Cardiff

European AQI now: 21 (Fair)
Fine particles (PM2.5): 6 µg/m³
UV index now: 0
Highest pollen: Very low

Source: Copernicus CAMS and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model estimates from CAMS

Cardiff climate: what is normal?

Cardiff lies on flat ground beside the Bristol Channel, at the foot of the South Wales valleys. South-westerly winds bring moist Atlantic air straight in, which keeps the city mild but makes it one of the wetter UK capitals.

The hills just to the north make a big difference. Rain increases sharply up the valleys towards Bannau Brycheiniog (the Brecon Beacons), so a wet day in Cardiff is usually a much wetter day in Merthyr Tydfil or Pontypridd.

What to watch for in Cardiff

Heavier rain up the valleys. Flood alerts in South Wales usually start on the rivers that drain the hills. The city forecast understates what the valleys get.
Mild winters. Frost is less common here than inland, and snow rarely settles near the coast. The Beacons are a different story.
Wind off the Channel. The bay and the Barrage are exposed to south-westerlies, so gusts by the water outpace those in the northern suburbs.

Average highAverage lowRain, mm a month

Across 1991 to 2020, Cardiff averaged 1024 mm of rain a year over about 152 wet days, and about 2825 hours of sunshine. The wettest month was December, the driest March. The warmest day in the record for this grid point reached 31.4°C (12 Aug 2020).

Cardiff: monthly averages 1991 to 2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis
Month	High	Low	Rain	Days with 1 mm+	Sunshine	Frost nights
January	7.6°C	3.2°C	96 mm	15	126 h	6
February	7.9°C	2.9°C	78 mm	12	157 h	6
March	9.8°C	3.8°C	70 mm	12	222 h	3
April	12.4°C	5.4°C	71 mm	12	288 h	1
May	15.3°C	8.4°C	74 mm	12	334 h	0
June	17.9°C	11.3°C	71 mm	11	340 h	0
July	19.6°C	13.2°C	75 mm	12	344 h	0
August	19.4°C	13.3°C	89 mm	13	312 h	0
September	17.3°C	11.4°C	77 mm	11	250 h	0
October	13.9°C	8.9°C	108 mm	14	192 h	0
November	10.4°C	6.0°C	105 mm	15	138 h	1
December	8.0°C	3.7°C	110 mm	14	122 h	5

Source: Copernicus ERA5 and Open-Meteo. ERA5 reanalysis grid values for the city, 1991 to 2020; these are not Met Office station averages

Cardiff weather questions

Will it rain in Cardiff this week?

How reliable is the 14 day forecast for Cardiff?

The 51 ECMWF runs agree well for the first few days, then spread out. From Thursday 5 Nov confidence is low: by the last day, the middle 80% of runs put the high between 7 and 14°C.

What is the weather usually like in Cardiff in November?

From 1991 to 2020, November in Cardiff averaged a high of 10.4°C and a low of 6°C, with about 105 mm of rain over 15 wet days (ERA5 reanalysis).

What makes Cardiff's weather different?