Leeds weather forecast

East of the Pennines, in the Aire valley: drier than Manchester and colder on clear winter nights.

Leeds now, 13:15

12°Mostly clear

Today 9° to 12°10 mph

Feels like: 9°C
Wind: 10 mph ENE
Gusts: 21 mph
Rain chance, next 12 h: 35%
Humidity: 79%
Dew point: 8°C
Cloud cover: 23%
Pressure: 1034 hPa
Visibility: Over 10 km
UV index: 0
Sunrise: 07:11
Sunset: 16:27

Source: Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model forecast for the city centre

Next 12 hours
Mostly clear, staying dry
9 to 12°C, gusts up to 24 mph.
High confidence
Hour by hour
Next 5 days
Dry all week
Highs 5 to 11°C, barely a millimetre of rain.
High confidence
Day by day
Days 6 to 15
Leaning drier
Most runs put highs between 5 and 13°C. Rain is favoured on 2 of 9 days.
Low confidence
See the model runs
Weeks 3 to 6
A little warmer than normal
A little wetter than normal, on average across the four weeks from Monday 16 November.
Leaning only
Week by week
December and January
A little milder than normal
From the seasonal model. It shifts the odds a little. Too vague to plan a date on.
Leaning only
Months ahead

Leeds hour by hour

The next three days. Temperature, chance of rain and wind for each hour.

Now12°Rain chance 35%9mph
14:0012°Rain chance 33%11mph
15:0011°Rain chance 29%9mph
16:0011°Rain chance 20%10mph
17:0010°Rain chance 8%7mph
18:009°Rain chance 0%8mph
19:009°Rain chance 0%8mph
20:009°Rain chance 0%8mph
21:009°Rain chance 0%7mph
22:009°Rain chance 1%8mph
23:009°Rain chance 2%7mph
Thu 59°Rain chance 2%8mph
01:009°Rain chance 1%7mph
02:009°Rain chance 1%7mph
03:009°Rain chance 0%7mph
04:009°Rain chance 0%7mph
05:009°Rain chance 0%8mph
06:009°Rain chance 2%9mph
07:009°Rain chance 7%8mph
08:009°Rain chance 15%7mph
09:0010°Rain chance 18%7mph
10:0011°Rain chance 15%8mph
11:0011°Rain chance 7%9mph
12:0011°Rain chance 2%10mph
13:0011°Rain chance 0%10mph
14:0011°Rain chance 0%9mph
15:0011°Rain chance 0%10mph
16:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
17:0010°Rain chance 0%7mph
18:0010°Rain chance 0%5mph
19:0010°Rain chance 0%6mph
20:009°Rain chance 0%6mph
21:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
22:009°Rain chance 0%6mph
23:009°Rain chance 0%6mph
Fri 69°Rain chance 0%6mph
01:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
02:008°Rain chance 0%6mph
03:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
04:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
05:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
06:008°Rain chance 0%5mph
07:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
08:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
09:009°Rain chance 0%5mph
10:0010°Rain chance 1%5mph
11:0010°Rain chance 2%5mph
12:0010°Rain chance 2%5mph

From 8°C (Sat 06:00) to 12°C (Wed 14:00) over the next three days. Line is temperature, bars are rain per hour.

Leeds 14 day forecast

Dry all week. Leeds peaks at 11°C on Thursday, and the coldest night drops to 2°C on Monday. No meaningful rain is forecast, with about 1.6mm in total. Winds are strongest on Wednesday, north-easterly with gusts near 27mph.

Today4 Nov
Drizzle. 1.5 mm in about 4 h. 32 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°12°
Low 9°C, high 12°C, 80% of runs between 12 and 12°C, normal high 11°C.
11mphgusts 24Medium confidence
Tomorrow5 Nov
Light drizzle. Little or no rain. 1 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
9°11°
Low 9°C, high 11°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 22High confidence
Friday6 Nov
Overcast. Dry. None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
8°10°
Low 8°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 10 and 11°C, normal high 10°C.
6mphgusts 13High confidence
Saturday7 Nov
Light drizzle. 0.9 mm in about 6 h. 23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
7°9°
Low 7°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 11°C, normal high 10°C.
3mphgusts 7Low confidence
Sunday8 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 17 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°9°
Low 4°C, high 9°C, 80% of runs between 9 and 10°C, normal high 10°C.
5mphgusts 9Medium confidence
Monday9 Nov
Fog. Dry. 1 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°5°
Low 2°C, high 5°C, 80% of runs between 7 and 10°C, normal high 10°C.
5mphgusts 10High confidence
Tuesday10 Nov
Fog. 0.3 mm in about 2 h. 24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°7°
Low 3°C, high 7°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 11°C, normal high 10°C.
10mphgusts 18Low confidence
Wednesday11 Nov
Overcast. 0.3 mm in about 1 h. 34 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
6°10°
Low 6°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 8 and 13°C, normal high 10°C.
12mphgusts 27Medium confidence
Thursday12 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
3°8°
Low 3°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 11°C, normal high 9°C.
10mphgusts 23Medium confidence
Friday13 Nov
Clear sky. Dry. 14 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
2°5°
Low 2°C, high 5°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 11°C, normal high 9°C.
14mphgusts 35Medium confidence
Saturday14 Nov
Mostly clear. Dry. 14 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
1°5°
Low 1°C, high 5°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 12°C, normal high 9°C.
13mphgusts 30Low confidence
Sunday15 Nov
Partly cloudy. Dry. 16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
1°8°
Low 1°C, high 8°C, 80% of runs between 6 and 12°C, normal high 9°C.
11mphgusts 27Low confidence
Monday16 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
6°10°
Low 6°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 5 and 13°C, normal high 9°C.
11mphgusts 23Low confidence
Tuesday17 Nov
Overcast. Dry. 28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more.
4°10°
Low 4°C, high 10°C, 80% of runs between 5 and 13°C, normal high 9°C.
9mphgusts 22Low confidence

Low to highWhere 80% of runs put the highNormal high, 1991 to 2020

Source: Open-Meteo, ECMWF and Copernicus ERA5. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Rain agreement and confidence from the 51-run ECMWF ensemble; normals 1991 to 2020

How far can you trust it?

Each faint line is one run of the ECMWF ensemble: the same model started 51 times with slightly different starting conditions. Where the lines bunch, the forecast is solid. Where they fan out, the weather is genuinely undecided. For Leeds, the runs part company from Saturday.

Most likely highMiddle 80% of runsNormal for the dateHighMediumLow confidence

Daytime high by day from the ensemble, with the range of runs, rain agreement and confidence
Day	Most likely high	Range (80% of runs)	Normal	Rain	Confidence
Today	12°C	12 to 12°C	11°C	32 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Thu 5 Nov	11°C	10 to 11°C	10°C	1 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Fri 6 Nov	11°C	10 to 11°C	10°C	None of the 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Sat 7 Nov	10°C	9 to 11°C	10°C	23 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sun 8 Nov	10°C	9 to 10°C	10°C	17 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Mon 9 Nov	9°C	7 to 10°C	10°C	1 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	High
Tue 10 Nov	10°C	8 to 11°C	10°C	24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 11 Nov	10°C	8 to 13°C	10°C	34 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Thu 12 Nov	8°C	6 to 11°C	9°C	18 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Fri 13 Nov	8°C	6 to 11°C	9°C	14 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Medium
Sat 14 Nov	8°C	6 to 12°C	9°C	14 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Sun 15 Nov	9°C	6 to 12°C	9°C	16 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Mon 16 Nov	10°C	5 to 13°C	9°C	22 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Tue 17 Nov	11°C	5 to 13°C	9°C	28 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low
Wed 18 Nov	9°C	5 to 13°C	9°C	24 of 51 runs give 1 mm or more	Low

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF IFS 0.25° ensemble, updated every 6 hours

Leeds long range forecast: the next six weeks

Beyond two weeks no model can tell you about a single day, but it can tell you whether a whole week leans warmer, colder, wetter or drier than usual. These figures compare the ECMWF extended-range forecast with the same model's climate for the time of year.

This week
2 Nov to 8 Nov
Close to normal
+0.3°C
Drier than normal
−13 mm
Temperatures close to normal, drier than normal.
Next week
9 Nov to 15 Nov
Close to normal
−0.2°C
Close to normal rainfall
+0 mm
No clear signal either way: expect typical weather for the time of year.
Week 3
16 Nov to 22 Nov
Warmer than normal
+1.5°C
Wetter than normal
+4 mm
Warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 4
23 Nov to 29 Nov
A little warmer than normal
+0.8°C
Wetter than normal
+5 mm
A little warmer than normal, wetter than normal.
Week 5
30 Nov to 6 Dec
A little warmer than normal
+0.6°C
A little wetter than normal
+2 mm
A little warmer than normal, a little wetter than normal.
Week 6
7 Dec to 13 Dec
A little milder than normal
+0.5°C
Close to normal rainfall
+1 mm
A little milder than normal, rainfall close to normal.

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF EC46 extended range, 51 runs, updated daily

Months ahead

The seasonal model nudges the odds for whole months. Over the UK its skill is modest, so treat a leaning as a slight tilt and anything within half a degree as no signal at all.

Monthly temperature and rainfall leaning against normal, ECMWF SEAS5
Month	Temperature	Against normal	Rainfall	Against normal
November 2026	Close to normal	+0.4°C	A little wetter than normal	+13 mm
December 2026	A little milder than normal	+1.0°C	A little wetter than normal	+11 mm
January 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.7°C	A little wetter than normal	+7 mm
February 2027	A little milder than normal	+0.6°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
March 2027	A little warmer than normal	+0.7°C	Close to normal rainfall	+5 mm
April 2027	A little warmer than normal	+1.0°C	Close to normal rainfall	+4 mm

Source: ECMWF and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. ECMWF SEAS5, 51 runs, updated on the 5th of each month

How accurate are long range forecasts?

Air quality and pollen in Leeds

European AQI now: 17 (Good)
Fine particles (PM2.5): 4 µg/m³
UV index now: 1
Highest pollen: Very low

Source: Copernicus CAMS and Open-Meteo. Updated 4 Nov, 13:18. Model estimates from CAMS

Leeds climate: what is normal?

Leeds sits on the eastern side of the Pennines, which take much of the moisture out of westerly winds before they arrive. The result is a drier, sunnier climate than towns over the hills on the Lancashire side.

The flip side is exposure to the east. When winds swing round to the north-east, cold air off the North Sea brings low cloud, raw days and, in winter, snow showers that can affect West Yorkshire more than the west of the country.

What to watch for in Leeds

Valley frost and fog. Cold air drains into the Aire and Wharfe valleys on still nights, so valley-floor spots can be foggy and frosty when the hilltops are clear.
Easterly snow. A cold north-easterly can bring snow showers off the North Sea inland across Yorkshire. Watch for an easterly wind in the winter forecast.
Rain shadow on a westerly. On a wet westerly day, rain totals here are often half or less of those over the Pennine tops just to the west.

Average highAverage lowRain, mm a month

Across 1991 to 2020, Leeds averaged 761 mm of rain a year over about 145 wet days, and about 2691 hours of sunshine. The wettest month was August, the driest March. The warmest day in the record for this grid point reached 31.8°C (25 Jul 2019).

Leeds: monthly averages 1991 to 2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis
Month	High	Low	Rain	Days with 1 mm+	Sunshine	Frost nights
January	6.6°C	1.8°C	61 mm	13	116 h	9
February	7.3°C	1.5°C	56 mm	12	155 h	9
March	9.4°C	2.4°C	54 mm	11	225 h	6
April	12.0°C	4.0°C	59 mm	12	277 h	3
May	14.9°C	6.9°C	56 mm	12	326 h	0
June	17.6°C	9.9°C	72 mm	13	307 h	0
July	19.7°C	12.1°C	68 mm	13	337 h	0
August	19.3°C	12.0°C	73 mm	12	300 h	0
September	16.9°C	9.9°C	62 mm	10	234 h	0
October	13.2°C	7.3°C	66 mm	12	182 h	1
November	9.3°C	4.3°C	66 mm	13	125 h	4
December	6.8°C	2.1°C	68 mm	13	107 h	9

Source: Copernicus ERA5 and Open-Meteo. ERA5 reanalysis grid values for the city, 1991 to 2020; these are not Met Office station averages

Leeds weather questions

Will it rain in Leeds this week?

How reliable is the 14 day forecast for Leeds?

The 51 ECMWF runs agree well for the first few days, then spread out. From Saturday 7 Nov confidence is low: by the last day, the middle 80% of runs put the high between 5 and 13°C.

What is the weather usually like in Leeds in November?

From 1991 to 2020, November in Leeds averaged a high of 9.3°C and a low of 4.3°C, with about 66 mm of rain over 13 wet days (ERA5 reanalysis).

What makes Leeds's weather different?